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Aemetis Shares Trade 60% Higher After It Unveils Plans to Reach $1 Billion in Revenue by 2025

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Shares of Aemetis Inc. established a new 52-week high after the renewable natural gas and carbon zero jet/diesel fuel firm unveiled its five-year plan to grow revenues to $1 billion annually by 2025.

Renewable natural gas, renewable fuel and bioproducts company Aemetis Inc. (AMTX:NASDAQ) today announced that "it has rolled out a new five-year plan that positions the company to generate $1.07 billion of revenues and $325 million of adjusted EBITDA in year 2025." The firm indicated that the revenues plan calls for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% and that EBITDA growth projections forecast a CAGR of 109% for the years 2021 thru 2025.

Aemetis described its primary business as being "a leading producer of below zero carbon intensity dairy renewable natural gas (RNG) and developer of the "Carbon Zero" renewable jet/diesel biorefineries using negative carbon intensity hydrogen." The company advised that it is presenting the details of its five-year plan today and tomorrow at the 2021 Credit Suisse Virtual Energy Conference.

The company's Chairman and CEO Eric McAfee commented, "We are pleased with the improving external environment for the Aemetis negative carbon intensity projects that already have been in project development, engineering and permitting for several years and are now generating revenue and EBITDA growth...The $1 billion of revenues in year 2025 represents less than one percent of the addressable market for our negative carbon intensity RNG and renewable fuels, especially considering increasing demand for negative carbon intensity electricity from renewable natural gas to power the expected rapid growth of electric vehicles with estimated -416 carbon intensity dairy RNG from our projects."

Aemetis noted that the bulk of its revenue growth is anticipated to be generated from two main areas, California dairy RNG and its own "Carbon Zero" renewable jet/diesel plants, which convert waste almond orchard wood into negative carbon intensity cellulosic hydrogen.

The company stated that "its Dairy RNG project plan shows revenues growing from $9 million in 2021 to $175 million in 2025, while Dairy RNG project EBITDA expands from $4 million in 2021 to $141 million in 2025." The firm added that in 2025, revenues from the renewable jet/diesel plants are expected to increase to $467 million resulting in EBITDA of $136 million.

Aemetis stated that it recently announced a $2 billion bid process to airlines and fuel blenders for the Carbon Zero 1 plant, which has a planned capacity of 45 million gallons per year and will be located at a 142-acre industrial complex in Riverbank, Calif.

The company mentioned that "the economics of cellulosic sugars are highly compelling, since every 10% reduction of corn use and replacement with cellulosic sugars from orchard waste wood results in more than $30 million per year of additional EBITDA at Aemetis due to higher value cellulosic ethanol at an estimated 90% lower feedstock cost from waste wood."

The firm pointed out that its carbon reduction upgrade and expansion plans at its present ethanol and biodiesel plants are expected to facilitate significant growth by the year 2025 of 87% to $426 million, versus the $227 million expected for 2021.

Aemetis is a renewable natural gas, renewable fuel and bioproducts company based in Cupertino, Calif. The firm is focused primarily on acquiring, developing and commercializing new and creative technologies as an alternative to traditional petroleum products. The company stated that it has completed Phase 1 construction of its California biogas digester network and pipeline system, which was built to convert dairy waste gas into RNG. The firm also owns a 65 million gallon per year ethanol production facility in California and a 50 million gallon per year distilled biodiesel and refined glycerin production facility in India.

The company added that in addition to the above, it is developing the Carbon Zero 1 plant in Riverbank, Calif., to convert renewable hydrogen from waste orchard wood and renewable electricity from solar and hydroelectric sources into renewable jet fuel, renewable diesel, as well as cellulosic ethanol and renewable hydrogen.

Aemetis started the day with a market cap of around $241.50 million with approximately 21.82 million shares outstanding and a short interest of about 6%. AMTX shares opened nearly 12% higher today at $11.00 (+$1.17, +11.90%) over Friday's $9.83 closing price and reached a new 52-week high price this afternoon of $16.15. The stock has traded today between $10.90 and $16.22 per share and is currently trading at $15.76 (+$5.93, +60.33%).


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