The only three analysts to correctly predict gold's biggest quarterly slump in four years are now split, reflecting investors' diverging views on the probability of central banks doing more to shore up growth.
Justin Smirk of Westpac Banking Corp., the most accurate of 20 analysts tracked by Bloomberg in the second quarter, says prices will keep dropping. Eugen Weinberg of Commerzbank AG and Nick Trevethan at ANZ Banking Group Ltd. predict a record within a year. Hedge funds and other speculators are the least bullish since 2008, even with investor holdings of physical bullion in exchange-traded products close to an all-time high, government data and figures compiled by Bloomberg show.
While gold has rallied since tumbling to within 1% of a bear market in May, it's still 16% below the record $1,923.70 an ounce reached on Sept. 6. Investors have favored sovereign debt and the dollar to protect their wealth as economic growth slows, driving yields to record lows and the U.S. currency to a two-year high. Central banks from Europe to China cut interest rates this month, and the Federal Reserve said it was prepared to act to boost the recovery. . .View Full Article