Gold Sees More $1,600 Projections


"GFMS, no longer opining the long-term bull's case for gold as 'fatally flawed,' now projects $1,600."

Midweek Elliott Wave analysis opined that unless a sharp decline follows the gold price backing down from the $1,477–$1,444 area we've seen in the yellow metal over recent days, the path is still open for a possible attempt to lift values toward a potential $1,525 target—at which a number of pivotal lines are said to converge. Currently, the jobless claim figures likely will be the most significant impact on market tenor this morning and any spike in same could bring the bulls back to the casino tables. Yesterday's finding that U.S. foreclosure claims fell to their lowest level in 36 months did not appear to have much of an impact on traders.

Curiously—for the same firm whose own leader opined just last fall that the long-term bulls case for gold is "fatally flawed"—London-based GFMS yesterday offered a projection of $1,600/oz. gold as attainable sometime this year. Of course, the $64,000 question, at current prices, turns to assessing whether chasing a further 5%–10% potential gain in the face of extant downside risk roughly twice (or more) as large, is still worth it for latecomers to the speculative party. Long-term insurance gold buyers are exempt from the conundrum, as their objectives do not entail the profit motive.

Silver traded in relatively nervous fashion, opening with a small, $0.04 gain, and then easing by about the same amount immediately after the start of trading; but, basically, the white metal orbited in the $40.50—$40.75 space and is thought to have support that needs to hold at the $39.75 mark. Platinum and palladium offered a parallel picture at the start of this morning's action; they each lost $1 and dipped to $1,772 and $762, respectively. No change was reported in rhodium with the current bid at $2,300/oz.

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