Don't Let Japan News Take Your Eye Off Gold & Silver
Source: Jeb Handwerger, Gold Stock Trades (3/22/11)
"Investors need to stay focused on the big picture."
It is important not to become influenced and to not allow news-related items to shake one off a long-term trend. Staying the course during times of great fear or news-related reactions is very difficult, but is necessary if one wants to ride a secular bull trend. You must not allow the news background to take your eye off the ball. Already, I heard from some that they want to give up and throw in the towel, and this is normal during selloffs. When the times are easy and stocks are breaking new highs everyone wants to buy and it is great to be in the stock market, but when there is a selloff and when companies pull back to key support, many want to throw in the towel and never want to trade again. Be careful of following this behavior as these selloffs often turn out to be buying opportunities.
I believe the positions that we are in with precious metals and commodities will continue to maintain their two-year trend. The situation in Japan will force them to print yen (FXY), putting more pressure on fiat currencies as deficits soar. I believe the geopolitical issues in the Middle East combined with the Japanese earthquake relief has pushed off any tightening measures from U.S. central banks and may even push Bernanke into expanding QE2 into QE3. The rebuilding efforts and monetary stimulus should be beneficial for gold (UGL), silver (AGQ), base metals (DBB) and commodities (DBC).
The U.S. equity market (SPY) is reaching oversold levels not seen since my buy signal in August of 2010. The Japanese earthquake correction may be reaching a climax and a point of capitulation. The S&P has reached oversold levels on the RSI and stochastics. Each time it has reached this level a reversal has occurred. This should benefit mining stocks that have seen forced liquidation due to margin calls. (See Time to Buy Uranium Mining Stocks?) As the 200-day moving average is moving higher, one needs to stay the course and trust the trend.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has paused for two weeks as investors cover margin calls. Selling has occurred across the board and this may signal forced liquidation. As the equity markets stabilize so too should gold and a breakout into new highs may occur shortly, as it appears to be setting up for a cup-and-handle breakout, which is indicative of a major move.
Beware of trading on fear rather than facts. It is easy to become distracted by news stories around us. A cold day in July does not mean that autumn is here. A 9.0 earthquake doesn't mean that Japan is over, as many are predicting or that secular trends have reversed. Japan will begin rebuilding as it has done repeatedly in the past following natural disasters. Do not be incorrectly drawn to the conclusion that the trends in precious metals or commodities are reversing. We must step back and separate the wood from the forest. Pullbacks in precious metals should be times to add to positions.
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