Precious Metals and USD's Next Big Move, Pt. II
Source: Chris Vermeulen, TheGoldAndOilGuy (1/31/11)
"The market will have to shake most gold positions before we see higher prices."
The past couple weeks I have been bombarded with emails asking if gold and silver have bottomed and if they should be buying more on these pullbacks. Those of you reading my work for the past few months know that my analysis clearly has shown how both gold and silver have been topping out. There have been strong distribution selling and price patterns on the charts are also clearly signaling a top was near.
A couple weeks ago, I posted an important report covering gold, silver and the U.S. dollar and where the next big moves would be. Well it's time for another update on gold, silver and the dollar as they have come a long way from my last report.
Take a quick look at my previous charts here for 15-second recap from where we were and are now.
Ok let's move on to today's charts. . .
Silver Daily Chart
Silver has formed a very nice looking top and is now trading under its key moving averages; it is also currently testing a key resistance level after Friday's bounce on the back of fears in Egypt. Unless something happens internationally I figure silver will continue its trend down.
Gold Daily Chart
Gold is doing the same as its little sister (silver). I feel the general public is still very bullish on metals and before we see higher prices (new highs) the market will have to shake the majority out of their positions first. At this time gold looks like it should test the $1285 level. Depending on how long it takes to get there and the price action it forms in the following days that outlook could change but expect sellers to step in at the $1350–$1355 area.
U.S. Dollar 2-Hour Chart
The dollar has been grinding lower the past two weeks forming a falling wedge reversal pattern. It's also important to note that on the daily chart the dollar tested a key support level last week. This should be an interesting week for the dollar and the rest of the market simple simply because when the dollar makes sharp movements it pushes the price of stocks and commodities around in a big way.
I am looking for a multiweek rally in the dollar possibly longer but with small pauses or corrections along the way.
Pre-Week Metals and dollar Trend Analysis
In short, I feel gold and silver are nearing a short-term resistance level and will find selling pressure in the coming days only to continue on their journey down for a few weeks. The dollar, on the other hand, broke out of its falling wedge on Friday and could have a strong rally for two to three days. I feel most traders and investors have been shorting the dollar for two weeks straight, so once they realize it's going higher there will be a ton of short covering and the dollar should rip higher.
This shift in the dollar from down to up has a direct effect on the SP500 and subscribers of my newsletter are going to take full advantage of these next big moves in the market.
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