LGT Raises Pd, Pt and Ag Forecasts

Source: Bloomberg, Nicholas Larkin (1/7/11)

"Palladium may climb as high as $1,111 an ounce."

Palladium will average $888 an ounce this year, higher than previously forecast, on greater investor demand and usage in car pollution-control devices, LGT Capital Management said. It also raised platinum and silver estimates.

Palladium may climb as high as $1,111 an ounce, LGT Analyst Bayram Dincer said in a report today as he lifted his forecast for average prices by 35%. Dincer increased his 2011 average estimates for platinum by 3.5% to $1,888 an ounce and for silver by 14% to $33.33 an ounce, while his gold forecast was little changed at $1,499 an ounce.

"Strong global fundamental demand, especially from the automotive sector, aligned with higher investment demand" will drive palladium, Pfaeffikon, Switzerland-based LGT said. "Supply constraint issues from major producing countries combined with ongoing speculation about the low Russian state stock levels could induce an overreaction."

Palladium and platinum are mainly used in jewelry and autocatalysts in vehicles. Researcher Johnson Matthey estimates that government stockpiles of palladium in Russia are the third-biggest source of supply. Those inventories may be near exhaustion, according to OAO GMK Norilsk Nickel—the largest Russian mining company.

Palladium for immediate delivery traded at $752.25 an ounce at 2:23 p.m. in London today after reaching a nine-year high of $807.75 on Jan. 3. Platinum was at $1,734.25 an ounce, silver was at $28.935 an ounce and gold was at $1,367.88 an ounce.

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