Source: Inside Futures, Michael Noonan (1/3/11)
"Always respect the strength of a trend. . ."
Typically, price will sell off and keep buyers on the defensive. Note a similar bar formation from the week of 17 March 2008. Price went sideways, unable to garner much of a rally after the strong reversal, and new lows followed for the next several months. In this most recent example, the following week, there was some downside follow-through, but price closed higher than the high volume week. With all of that volume and an inability to maintain lower prices, it was the market's way of ending a message. Just a few weeks later, price exceeded the previous high, erasing all of the effort of the sellers. The message was, this trend is strong, take heed.
We did not use this information when recommending a long position, last week; instead, we relied upon the sideways formation with upper end closes in a known uptrend and cited several factors. The point to be made is simply to always respect the strength of a trend—trade in harmony with it, and do not go against it. For this reason, knowledge of the trend is the single-most important piece of information you can have.