In response to these complications, the company reports that it updated its drill rig, switched to an oil-based mud system, and plugged a section of drilling.
TAG hopes that by adapting to the site's geology and routing around the challenging formations, it will be able to proceed with great results.
Middle East Conflict Could Prompt Oil Breakout
Technical Analyst Clive Maund examined the oil market on January 20, 2024, and concluded that the current lower-than-expected trends in oil are misleading.
Maund commented, "Because oil looks superficially like it is still trending lower, this base pattern is easy to miss as it is somewhat camouflaged, but what ‘gives the game away' is the marked improvement in momentum coupled with persistent heavier volume this month to date." Maund believes that oil is liable to break out soon, especially if the U.S. and Iran engage in conflict with each other.
Keith Kohl with Energy & Capital reported on December 28, 2023, that the U.S.'s domestic oil production had made an unexpected recovery, and as a result, oil prices had remained under control, and exports climbed to almost 5 million barrels per day. However, Kohl predicts that this growth will not be sustained.
Potential 163.2% Return
Chen Lin of What is Chen Buying? What is Chen Selling? looked at TAG Oil in June of 2023 in a list of stocks he preferred and was very bullish about TAG's value if they produced successful drill results. Lin commented that if TAG could produce profitable amounts of oil in Egypt, "They would change politics forever. Egypt would become a major oil producer."
In a newsletter published on January 2, 2024, Chen called TAG a stock with a "major catalyst," especially as "They are set to report first ever fracking results in Egypt."
Haywood Capital Markets reviewed the company positively on January 24, 2024, and commented, "With a strong financial position of CA$13-CA$14 million cash and no debt, TAO is well positioned to execute drilling." Haywood believes that the company's financials reveal "considerable upside potential."
Bill Newman with Research Capital reviewed the company on January 3, 2024, and rated TAG Oil Ltd. as a "Speculative Buy" with a target share price of CA$1.00 and a potential return on investment of 163.2%. Newman cited the potential of the company's drill plans, especially as it makes efforts to target the Abu-Roash F formation.
A report from Research Capital Corporation published on January 3, 2024, rated TAG as a "speculative buy" and gave the company a target share price of CA$1.00. In light of TAG's adaptation to the geology of the site, the report stated, "We remain optimistic that the modifications and upgrades to the drilling rig and plan will prove effective. Our fundamental theses remain unchanged."
The company's investor presentation reports a number of catalysts, including oil production anticipated in Q2 of 2024.
Ownership and Share Structure
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Refinitiv provided a breakdown of the company's ownership and share structure, where management and insiders own approximately 4.05% of the company. According to Refinitiv, CEO Toby Robert Pierce owns 1.03% of the company with 1.64 million shares, COO Suneel Gupta owns 0.99% of the company with 1.59 million shares, CFO Barry MacNeil owns 0.85% of the company with 1.36 million shares, Director Gavin Hugh Lothian Wilson owns 0.72% of the company with 1.15 million shares, Director Keith C. Hill owns 0.25% of the company with 0.40 million shares, Director Thomas Hickey owns 0.17% of the company with 0.26 million shares, and Corporate Secretary Giuseppe Perone owns 0.04% of the company with 0.06 million shares.
Refinitiv reports that institutions own approximately 2.95% of the company, as Purpose Investments Inc. owns 2.09% of the company with 3.33 million shares, Novum Asset Management A.G. owns 0.64% of the company with 1.02 million shares, and Palos Management Inc. owns 0.22% of the company with 0.35 million shares.
According to Refinitiv, there are 159.74 million shares outstanding and 98.79 million free float traded shares, while the company has a market cap of CA$45.1 million shares and trades in the 52-week period between CA$0.34 and CA$0.78.
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- TAG Oil Ltd. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
- Amanda Duvall wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
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