As Canada recovers from its worst year of wildfires since 1983, a Vancouver-based company is releasing a tool to provide insight into wildfire risks and aid in planning and mitigation strategies for the future.
is a leading global climate risk and data solutions provider of risk products that implement artificial intelligence (AI) to assess socioeconomic and market variables, as well as the latest climate models.
The company's Wildfire 2.0 platform incorporates fire ignitions, spread, historical fire and weather information, and a 1-to-5 scoring system that considers past fires and future fire predictions.
"We understand the increasing importance of accurate climate risk data in today’s rapidly changing environment," said Aisix Chief Executive Officer Mihalis Belantis. "Wildfire 2.0 is more than a data set; it's a crucial tool for governments, businesses, and communities to make informed decisions that could save properties, ecosystems, and lives."
About 18.4 million hectares burned in Canada in 2023, compared to an average of just 2.5 million hectares per year, noted NASA's Earth Observatory website.
The Catalyst: Entire Continent Affected
The fires didn't just affect Canada; their smoke moved south and choked the air over some American cities. By the end of last summer, 19 counties in 11 states had days with "very unhealthy" and "hazardous" air quality — given at least a "code purple" alert on the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Air Quality Index (which goes from green to maroon), CNN reported from EPA data.
At least 195 counties in 25 states had code purple or maroon air quality days in 2023 through the end of August, CNN said. Nineteen experienced those levels for the first time, according to the same data.
Determining Burn Probability for All of Canada
Aisix said Wildfire 2.0's data layer is generated by building on state-of-the-art Canadian Forest Service workflow using Burn-P3 software, which combines a physically based fire spread model with a stochastic approach to determine burn probability.
The software simulates "billions of synthetic fire events across climatological, morphological, and biophysical conditions to deliver burn probabilities," the company noted in a release. "AISIX’s workflow aggregates independent burn scenarios to stochastically determine burn probability for the entirety of Canada."
Some key features of the software include:
- Wildfire burn probability and wildfire risk scores
- Cumulative wildfire burn probabilities over one, 10, and 30 years
- Average burn probabilities within 10 kilometers
- Number of small historical fires (<200 hectares)
- Number of large historical fires (>200 hectares)
- 250-meter resolution for all of Canada
- Based on more than 400,000 historic fire locations and over 400 billion simulated fires
- Builds on top of Canadian Forest Service methodologies that are internationally validated and peer-reviewed
Wildfire 2.0 is the "result of extensive work and research of leading climate experts and data scientists," the company said. "It represents a significant step forward in AISIX Solutions' commitment to providing cutting-edge tools for climate risk assessment."
Aisix recently released its strategic plans for the coming year. Its goals for 2024 include introducing ground-breaking AI-driven analytics products, targeting new sectors such as insurance, finance, and property management, expanding to untapped markets, especially the United States and Europe, and developing a new enterprise-level user interface and user experience for its digital products.
"Our vision for 2024 is not just about advancing risk analysis technology; it's about empowering our clients with clarity and confidence in their decision-making processes in an uncertain world," Belantis said. "We are excited about this journey and are committed to driving positive change in how businesses understand and respond to climate risks. Aisix is not just navigating the present; we strive to shape the future of investment decisions."
Weather Disasters Have 'High Price Tag'
Weather disasters "carry an outrageously high price tag," WTW reported last November. "Worldwide, the economic cost of weather and climate disasters was nearly (US)$1.5 trillion over the decade 2010-2019. So far in 2023, the United States has experienced 23 separate billion-dollar disasters, the highest number ever (and the year is not yet over)."
The climate risk digital solutions market was worth US$880 million in 2021, Verdantix reported. It predicted the market will reach more than US$4 billion in 2027.
To get those figures, Verdantix "analyzed macroeconomic factors, such as the recent volatility of energy prices and the high rate of inflation, alongside disclosed revenue data and global corporate survey data," Alice Saunders wrote for Verdantix in a blog.
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"The increasing severity and frequency of weather events is compounded by the rising cost of insurance premiums," she wrote.
"Firms will invest in climate risk digital solutions to stay on top of policy risks," Saunders noted. "Firms must assess their investments based on physical and transition risks to ensure they are not left with stranded assets."
Ownership and Share Structure
According to Reuters, about 12% of Aisix Solutions is owned by insiders, and the rest is retail.
Top shareholders are the CEO Belantis with 10.28% or 7.91 million shares, and Co-founder and Director David Poole with 1.8% or 1.39 million shares, Reuters said.
Aisix has a market cap of CA$5.82 million with 76.96 million shares outstanding, 67.66 free floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.13 and CA$0.015.
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- Aisix Solutions Inc. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000.
- Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
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