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TICKERS: SEA; SA

Court Deems Northwestern BC Gold-Copper Project 'Substantially Started' Designation as Reasonable, but Faces Further Consultation Order
Research Report

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A British Columbia court affirmed the KSM project's "Substantially Started" designation is reasonable, but ordered the EAO to reconsider after further First Nations consultation.

On June 9, 2026, Harrison Reynolds of RBC Capital Markets (RBC Dominion Securities Inc.) reiterated an Outperform rating and US$71.00 price target on Seabridge Gold Inc. (SEA:TSX; SA:NYSE.MKT), implying roughly 155% upside from the June 8, 2026 closing price of US$27.83, following a British Columbia Supreme Court ruling that upheld the "Substantially Started" designation for the company's KSM project while ordering additional Indigenous consultation.

Court Ruling and Analyst View

The BC Supreme Court found that the Environmental Assessment Office's (EAO) July 2024 "Substantially Started" determination for KSM was reasonable, affirming the designation on its merits. The deficiency identified by the court was confined to the consultation process with the Tsetsaut Skii km Lax Ha (TSKLH), rather than the substance of the decision. The court ordered the EAO to give the TSKLH a 90-day window to submit written representations, after which the office must reconsider its determination.

A separate petition brought by SkeenaWild Conservation Trust, an environmental NGO challenging the determination on its merits, was dismissed in full. Reynolds characterized the outcome as one that "removes the risk of the designation being overturned on its merits, but leaves a potential procedural overhang," noting the consultation finding and ordered reconsideration amount to a partial setback even as the substantive ruling went in Seabridge's favor. RBC tagged the report with a Neutral sentiment.

Operational Continuity and Project Status

Work at KSM continues uninterrupted through the reconsideration period. Since the January 2024 application, Seabridge has spent an additional ~US$208m on permanent works, bringing the total to US$1.2b, which Reynolds views as strengthening the factual basis for the determination should it be revisited. Management confirmed the 2026 site program proceeds as planned, including feasibility study preparations targeting completion in 2H27, road construction, and the completion of BC Hydro's Treaty Creek Terminal.

Broad First Nations support remains intact, with backing from the Nisga'a and Tahltan Nations and the Gitxsan Hereditary Chiefs Office; the report frames the TSKLH matter as specific to one group and procedural in nature rather than reflecting broader Indigenous opposition. The "Substantially Started" designation is significant because it locks KSM's provincial and federal environmental assessment certificates in place for the life of the project, removing the prior expiry deadline originally set for July 2026; without it, the project's EA approvals would have lapsed and effectively halted advancement.

Valuation, Outlook, and Risks

The US$71.00 target is based on an average 0.40x multiple applied to RBC's NAV8% estimate, a discount to covered developer peers that reflects the project's stage, potential partnership, longer-dated upside from unmodeled resources and projects, and construction cost and complexity. The Speculative Risk qualifier reflects the early-stage nature of the project and the construction risk ahead.

Key risks flagged include partnership risk, since the target and recommendation largely hinge on Seabridge securing a partner first to advance and fund a feasibility study and then to assume operatorship through construction and production; sensitivity to gold prices (and to a lesser extent copper); and construction capex, estimated at US$6.4bn in the 2022 PFS or US$7.8bn on RBC's smaller-scale initial project assumption. Additional risks span the project's remoteness and climate, the need for significant further permitting prior to production despite environmental approvals being in place, project financing dependent on partnership terms and market conditions, and past project opposition from local groups and NGOs concerning impacts on waters, rivers, and salmon spawning grounds.


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Important Disclosures:

  1. Seabridge Gold Inc. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Seabridge Gold Inc.
  3. This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company. 

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