My thoughts on SpaceX's impending IPO
Contributed Opinion

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Considering picking up some SpaceX shares?

Very soon, Elon's largest venture (yes, already valued above Tesla Inc. (TSLA:NASDAQ)!) hits the public markets trading as SPCX.

It's set to be the biggest IPO ever recorded. And the most talked-about, knocking Meta Platforms Inc.'s (META:NASDAQ) rocky 2012 debut out of the top spot.

Anytime an asset attracts this level of buzz, the smart move is to pause and think it through carefully.

SpaceX is a remarkable business. I'm a fan of what it's building. It's destined for enormous success, and I'm firmly convinced it'll become the planet's most valuable company eventually.

SpaceX is also widely misread. People treat it as a rocket outfit and nothing more. As an illustration, I'd wager fewer than 10% of folks realize it controls the artificial intelligence (AI) firm xAI, which in turn controls X (the platform once called Twitter).

SpaceX additionally constructed and operates one of the planet's largest data centers, now rented to Claude's parent company, Anthropic, for $1 billion monthly.

To help you get a handle on SpaceX—and every disruption its market debut will set off—I'm devoting the upcoming Jolts entirely to the company.

This IPO is the disruption's Super Bowl. Approach it correctly, and the profit potential is substantial.

So let's break down its different divisions to figure out what you're actually purchasing when you grab SpaceX stock.

Space sits at the base of everything SpaceX does.

The launch operation, to be precise. Falcon 9... Falcon Heavy... The Dragon capsule... Starship... NASA contracts... Military launches... Commercial cargo. And eventually, supply runs to the Moon and Mars.

During 2025, the Space division generated roughly $4.1 billion in revenue.

SpaceX basically controls the doorway to orbit. It handled north of 80% of all global mass delivered to orbit in 2025.

Anyone else doing business in space — outfits making satellites, sensors, defense hardware, lunar landers — requires a dependable, low-cost lift. And nearly always, that translates to writing SpaceX a check for a seat aboard one of its rockets.

That said, the Space division isn't generating spare cash.

Constructing the largest, most capable rockets ever made demands a staggering amount of capital. One Falcon 9 flight reportedly costs somewhere between $15 million and $28 million.

And SpaceX has already sunk over $15 billion into building its enormous Starship rocket, which still isn't flying operationally.

So even though this division's strategic worth is immense, real profits remain a long way off.

Connectivity — that is, Starlink — is where the cash gets generated.

Starlink ranks as the largest satellite constellation ever assembled.

Over 10,000 satellites deliver fast internet to more than 10 million customers spread across 100-plus nations.

Starlink's customer count has nearly doubled over the last 15 months. The legacy telecom players needed decades to hit a similar size.

In 2025, Starlink's revenue climbed about 50% to reach $11.4 billion. It now accounts for two-thirds of what SpaceX takes in.

But in contrast to the Space lines, Starlink turns a healthy profit. And the trajectory keeps improving. Every additional customer reinforces Starlink, generating steadier monthly income that SpaceX can plow into launching even more satellites.

Starlink's revenue could plausibly double this year as its customer base keeps expanding fast.

Picture Starlink as the equivalent of Amazon.com Inc.'s (AMZN:NASDAQ) AWS cloud division. A subscription-revenue engine humming away quietly inside what the public regards as a rocket maker.

The largest prize, though, is AI.

This past February 2026, SpaceX bought xAI, the outfit behind the Grok chatbot. As noted earlier, it also holds the X platform.

Which means buying SpaceX stock also means buying a stake in one of the planet's biggest AI firms.

The company's AI lineup features: xAI's Grok models.

The X platform serves as a live data and distribution channel.

A pair of the world's largest AI clusters, named Colossus and Colossus II.

Plus, a long-range vision to launch AI data centers into space.

This division pulled in around $3.2 billion of revenue during 2025. And that figure is headed higher. SpaceX just signed an agreement to lease a portion of its computing capacity to AI heavyweight Anthropic for a reported $1.25 billion monthly.

And that's a single customer!

SpaceX pegs the total addressable market (TAM) — the full value of the market xAI might eventually serve — at $28.5 trillion. Their phrase for it: "the largest actionable TAM in human history."

That's beyond dispute.

Does all of this justify $1.75 trillion right now?

That's the valuation SpaceX is going public at. It'll immediately land among the world's 10 biggest companies. It'll carry a higher value than both Meta and Walmart Inc. (WMT:NYSE).

Here's the catch with IPOs: a terrific company can still stumble at its debut. Frankly, that's the more common outcome.

So count me as highly excited about SpaceX, the company. But its valuation and the IPO itself? That's the subject I'll tackle next.

I intend to hand my readers plenty to chew on — and plenty of value — in my upcoming Jolt issues. Go here to sign up for the Jolt for free.