Do Analysts Like This Gold Developer Exploring the US Great Basin?

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1. Ownership and Share Structure Information

The information listed above was updated on the date this article was published and was compiled from information from the company and various other data providers.

Liberty Gold Corp. (LGD:TSX; LGDTF:OTCQX) is a U.S.-focused gold development company advancing the Black Pine Oxide Gold Project in southeastern Idaho. Black Pine is a large-scale, open-pit, run-of-mine heap leach oxide gold project located in the Great Basin, one of the world's most prolific gold-producing regions.

The Black Pine project is currently advancing through feasibility studies and a coordinated federal and state permitting process under the FAST-41 program. With a large gold resource, significant infrastructure advantages, and a clear path toward development, Black Pine is positioned as one of the few advanced-stage oxide gold projects of scale in the United States.

Liberty Gold's strategy is centered on responsibly advancing Black Pine toward a future construction decision while continuing to enhance project economics, improve engineering confidence, and reduce development risk through technical studies, permitting progress, and targeted drilling programs.

The company recently outlined its 2026 drill program at Black Pine, with 40,000 meters of approved reverse circulation (RC) drilling and an additional 10,000 meters of RC drilling planned contingent on results. The program is designed to support feasibility work, increase confidence in early production areas, advance engineering and permitting objectives, and further de-risk the project as it advances toward a future construction decision.

Several analysts, including the following, have ratings of the stock or have analyzed its fundamentals.

Steve Therrien — 3L Capital

In a May 26 updated research note, 3L Capital Analyst Steve Therrien called Black Pine "one of the most strategic gold assets in North America."

Therrien recently participated in a Black Pine site visit alongside analysts and institutional investors, where he reviewed ongoing feasibility, permitting, and development activities with Liberty Gold's technical team. "Since our initial visit, significant enhancements have been made to both the technical and project development teams under the leadership of Chief Executive Officer Jon Gilligan, who took the helm in June 2025," he wrote.

"We left site with increased confidence that the upcoming Q4 Feasibility Study (FS) will demonstrate a stronger project than outlined in the PFS, supported by a larger and simplified production profile, a more robust and increasingly de-risked geometallurgical model, continued permitting advancement, and what we view as obvious long-term resource and mine life extension potential," the analyst wrote. "Permitting remains on track with a Record of Decision (RoD) expected in January 2028."

Therrien said 3L regards Black Pine as a highly strategic gold asset with significant potential for acquisition before it begins production. The project stands out in North America for its favorable capital expenditure to production profile, scale, simplicity, potential for life-of-mine extension, clear permitting trajectory, and available infrastructure and water resources, the analyst noted.

Liberty Gold (LGD) has put together a proficient team capable of not only building the mine but also potentially leading project development for a larger producer if LGD were to be acquired, Therrien wrote.

"As a result, we continue to view LGD as offering one of the best risk-reward setups in the sector for investors seeking exposure to a fully funded-to-construction, advanced-stage gold development project capable of supporting a long-life +150kozpa Au (150,000 ounces of gold per annum) operation in a Tier 1 jurisdiction."

While 3L does not give traditional ratings or price targets, Therrien said the firm updated its financial model for the company after the visit, accounting for increased throughput, slightly lower grades, and elevated capital and operational expenditures.

3L's base case Net Asset Value (NAV) at US$3,500 per ounce of gold for LGD now stands at CA$3.7 billion (CA$5.55 per share), which implies a Price to NAV ratio of 0.28x. If gold reaches US$4,000 per ounce, the NAV would increase to CA$4.7 billion (CA$7.02 per share), with a P/NAV of 0.22x.

"We believe that as LGD advances Black Pine, (the company) will re-rate towards the multiple of fully permitted single-asset developers such as Perpetua (0.72x) or Skeena (0.71x)," Therrien said. "If LGD were acquired at the average developer takeout P/NAV of 0.63x we have calculated between 2020-25, it would imply 125% upside in our base case & 195% upside in our spot case."

Peter Bell — Canaccord Capital Markets

On May 26, Analyst Peter Bell of Canaccord Capital Markets examined a diverse group of 18 precious metals developers and explorers, including Liberty Gold. These companies range from those at the very initial stages, without established resources, to late-stage developers on the cusp of production.

The firm updated its coverage of the North American developer/explorer sector to incorporate first-quarter 2026 financial results, updated commodity and foreign exchange price assumptions from CG, and various specific adjustments to individual companies.

Liberty Gold, a Speculative Buy, saw its target price rise from CA$5.50 to CA$6.25, Bell noted. Making that milestone would represent a 337% increase from its price when he wrote the note.

"Liberty has continued to advance its Black Pine oxide gold project in Idaho through both permitting and technical de-risking," the author said. "In January, Black Pine was accepted into the US FAST-41 federal permitting framework as a covered project, which should provide a more coordinated permitting timetable and enhanced inter-agency coordination. Recent infill and step-out drilling has also supported the feasibility study, with results aimed at validating continuity, improving confidence in mineralized domains, and potentially converting areas previously treated as waste into resources."

Regarding changes in metal prices, Canaccord adjusted its commodity price forecasts, increasing its gold price projections by approximately 7–13% throughout the forward curve and silver price assumptions by about 3–6%. For 2026, The company said it now anticipates a gold price of US$4,758 per ounce and a long-term forecast of US$5,537 per ounce. Similarly, its silver price expectations for 2026 have been adjusted to US$76.24 per ounce, with a long-term projection of US$82.14 per ounce.

This flurry of M&A activity is taking place against a backdrop of strong sector fundamentals, where companies are demonstrating robust balance sheets and enhanced liquidity, Bell said. The elevated prices of gold and silver have significantly improved margins and free cash flow. Many senior and intermediate producers are now in a net cash positive position, returning unprecedented amounts of capital to shareholders while still maintaining the capacity for disciplined M&A activities. Given the challenges of depleting mine lives, the scarcity of new discoveries, and the increasing cost and duration of development timelines, well-capitalized producers are more eager than ever to secure projects that promise to enhance their medium and long-term production profiles.

Brian Quast — BMO Capital Markets

Analyst Brian Quast of BMO Capital Markets also described the recent site visit in Idaho in an updated note on May 25.

"While on the surface little has changed over the past few years, engineering work and exploration has progressed," noted Quast, who rated the stock Outperform but did not assign a target price. "This is building towards a feasibility study, which is expected in Q4/26, and permitting, which is expected to kick off more seriously in 2027, with a view to a Record of Decision in January 2028 under the FAST 41 Covered Project designation."

The focus for 2026 is heavily placed on completing this feasibility study, which will utilize the previously disclosed Measured and Indicated resource of 4.88 million ounces (Moz) of gold and an Inferred resource of 1.05 Moz of gold. The outcomes of this study will lay the groundwork for the permitting process in 2027, with the Notice of Intent already issued and the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) process underway.

According to Quast, in addition to the feasibility study, Liberty Gold has planned an extensive drilling program for 2026, covering approximately 40 kilometers. This drilling campaign is strategically divided into three main priorities: enhancing Early Production Confidence through infill drilling to upgrade resources from indicated to measured classification within the first two to three years of the mine plan; driving Exploration and Resource Growth by targeting high-priority resource extension areas close to planned mining sites and other selected broader targets; and supporting Permitting & Engineering through drilling that aids in mine plan optimization, including phase sequencing, geotechnical material testing, infrastructure planning, and meeting permitting requirements.

The project's complex geology presents unique opportunities to potentially accelerate or increase production levels throughout the mine's lifespan. Notably, near-surface ore is currently located beneath the legacy heap leach pad, presenting options to utilize this spent ore as over-liner material, Quast wrote.

Alternatively, waste material from previous operations, which holds a higher recoverable grade, could serve as over-liner material. Additionally, there are prospects to advance the extraction of ounces from the Rangefront pit, which offers lower grade but better kinetics, and from deeper within the Discovery pit, which contains higher-grade ore, to sustain annual production levels above 200,000 ounces.

Lauren McConnell — Paradigm Capital

Liberty Gold is positioned as an attractive late-stage developer as its Black Pine project progresses through feasibility studies and federal permitting, moving closer to construction readiness, according to a May 24 note by Paradigm Capital's Lauren McConnell.

With its expansive and scalable U.S. oxide heap-leach project and the potential for improved economics in the early years from the Rangefront/Discovery areas, Liberty Gold offers a valuation that remains significantly below that of its late-stage peers, providing leveraged exposure to gold with several near-term de-risking catalysts, the analyst noted.

McConnell also said she attended the Black Pine visit, accompanied by senior management.

"While this was not our first visit to site, the tour reaffirmed our view on both the scale of the system and the quality of the team now tasked with taking Black Pine through feasibility, permitting, financing and construction," the report said.

Key points from the visit include:

• Permitting as a Key Differentiator: Black Pine has moved beyond being just another U.S. permitting story. It now boasts FAST-41 Covered Project status, with a coordinated federal and Idaho state permitting schedule well underway, including an issued Notice of Intent (NOI) and the Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) process. A Record of Decision (RoD) is targeted for January 2028, paving the way for construction to commence that year and first gold production anticipated by late 2028 or 2029.
• Feasibility Study as a Starting Point: The upcoming Feasibility Study (FS), expected in Q4 of 2026, should be seen as a preliminary snapshot, not the final plan. The project's potential for growth was evident during our site visit, which showcased multiple zones contributing to Black Pine's extensive footprint. Establishing an initial mine plan now is crucial for advancing the permitting process and moving towards construction.
• Project Simplicity vs. Team Complexity: While Black Pine is a straightforward run-of-mine heap-leach project with low capital intensity and strong gold leverage, the execution across various critical areas such as permitting, metallurgy, water management, sequencing, and early-year grade control will be vital.
• Reduced Funding Risk and Potential for Re-rating: The sale of assets such as Goldstrike and Gage, combined with continued support from Centerra with a 9.9% ownership, has solidified Liberty's financial position, focusing the narrative squarely on Black Pine.

Currently trading at approximately CA$1.43, LGD is valued at just around 0.16x Paradigm's unfinanced NAV of approximately CA$8.99 per share and about 0.20x our financed NAV of approximately CA$7.12 per share.

McConnell said she anticipates significant re-rating potential as Black Pine progresses through the FS, reaches EIS milestones, and secures financing.

"The Black Pine tour affirmed our thesis," McConnell wrote. "The asset is large, simple, scalable and located in a supportive U.S. jurisdiction, but the biggest takeaway was execution confidence. Meeting Matt, Tyler and Richard reinforced that Liberty has built a team capable of managing the key workstreams that matter from here: permitting, feasibility, mine planning, metallurgy, engineering, water and operational readiness. We continue to view Black Pine as one of the most compelling late-stage oxide gold development assets in North America." 

McConnell rated the stock Speculative Buy with a CA$4.30 per share 12-month target price, a more than 200% return from when the note was written.

Ownership and Share Structure¹

Ownership remains strong and includes several well-known mining and resource investors. Major shareholders include Centerra Gold Corp., which holds about 9.9% of the company, Van Eck Associates holds about 8.7%, Franklin Advisors holds about 8.1%, and Wheaton Precious Metals holds about 3.8%.

Management and insiders own about 4% of Liberty Gold's outstanding shares.

Liberty has a market cap of CA$903.6 million, 528.42 million outstanding shares, and a 52-week range of CA$0.30 to CA$1.81.