Energy Company Uncovers Massive Gas Potential Indonesia
Research Report

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Disclosures for Auctus Advisors, Criterium Energy Ltd., November 20, 2025

Criterium Energy Ltd. (“Criterium” or the “Company”) is a corporate client of Auctus Advisors LLP (“Auctus”). Auctus receives, and has received in the past 12 months, compensation for providing corporate broking and/or investment banking services to the Company, including the publication and dissemination of marketing material from time to time. MiFID II Disclosures This document, being paid for by a corporate issuer, is believed by Auctus to be an ‘acceptable minor non-monetary benefit’ as set out in Article 12 (3) of the Commission Delegated Act C(2016) 2031 which is part of UK law by virtue of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. It is produced solely in support of our corporate broking and corporate finance business. Auctus does not offer a secondary execution service in the UK. This note is a marketing communication and NOT independent research. 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On November 20, 2025, Auctus Advisors LLP analyst Stephane Foucaud reiterated a target price of CA$0.35 on Criterium Energy Ltd. (CEQ:TSXV), representing 338% upside from the current share price at the time of the report of CA$0.08.

The report highlighted further reductions in capital expenditure guidance for the company's gas development project and progress toward first gas production in the first half of 2026.

Southeast MGH Gas Development Update

Pipeline construction for the Southeast MGH 5-7 million cubic feet per day development is scheduled to begin in early 2026, with first gas expected in the first half of 2026. Capital expenditure has been reduced further to US$2-3 million from a previous range of US$2.5-4 million, of which US$1.7 million has already been spent. The subsequent North MGH development, requiring incremental capital expenditure of approximately US$1 million, would lift total production to 7-10 million cubic feet per day.

The company now expects gas prices of US$6-7 per thousand cubic feet, in line with recent South Sumatra sales, versus the prior assumption of US$5-7 per thousand cubic feet. Criterium held CA$1.8 million in cash at the end of September and expects to fund the gas development directly from its balance sheet.

An extended well test of multiple zones at North MGH is planned for the first quarter of 2026. The MGH-20 well was previously tested at 2.5 million cubic feet per day with associated oil from a single interval, with several additional potentially gas-bearing zones to be tested. The facility processing fee remains the key outstanding negotiation item, but agreement is expected shortly.

Strategic Partnerships and Market Developments

Criterium signed a Memorandum of Understanding with PT Kalimantan Jawa Gas to collaborate on gas development and transportation for industrial supply to Central, East, and West Java, leveraging an existing pipeline located approximately 25 kilometers from the Lengo Field in the adjacent Muriah Production Sharing Contract.

Separately, Conrad Asia Energy announced the divestment of a 75% working interest in the Mako discovery to Arsari. Under the transaction terms, Arsari will carry Conrad to first production through a loan structure, repayable from cash flow. The transaction also includes US$16 million in cash consideration, payable in three tranches: US$5 million in the first quarter of 2026, US$4 million in the second quarter of 2026, and US$7 million in the third quarter of 2027.

Foucaud stated: "We believe this transaction underscores the strong regional interest in natural gas assets." The analyst noted that Mako, with approximately 430 billion cubic feet of 2C gross contingent resources, and Bulu, with approximately 360 billion cubic feet, are of comparable scale, stating, "The terms of the Mako deal provide a clear benchmark for what can be achieved in Indonesia."

Valuation and Net Asset Value Analysis

Criterium shares trade at approximately a 30% discount to the firm's 2P net asset value based on oil reserves alone. Developing Southeast MGH and North MGH would add CA$0.14 per share, Macan Gedang would add CA$0.08 per share, and Cerah would add CA$0.14 per share, for a total potential valuation of CA$0.36 per share. The analyst is not carrying any value for MGH-43 pending visibility on resources. The risked net asset value for Criterium is CA$0.31 per share.

The firm's valuation analysis shows total core net asset value at CA$0.299 per share on a risked basis and CA$0.346 per share on an unrisked basis, representing 94% of the total. The net asset value table indicates the company's P/Core NAV at 27%, P/NAV at 25%, and P/Unrisked NAV at 2%.

Financial Position and Operating Metrics

Based on the financial estimates provided, Criterium is expected to produce 10,708 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025, rising to 10,847 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2026 and 12,600 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2027. All production currently consists of oil and liquids, with no gas production reflected in estimates until the Southeast MGH development comes online.

Cash flow netback is expected to reach US$21.07 per barrel of oil equivalent in 2025, increasing to US$27.75 per barrel of oil equivalent in 2026 and US$25.69 per barrel of oil equivalent in 2027. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization is forecast at US$150 million in 2025, US$123 million in 2026, and US$132 million in 2027.

The company's market capitalization stands at CA$28 million based on 179.9 million basic shares outstanding at the current share price. Total diluted shares, including options, restricted share units, and warrants, amount to 200.4 million shares.