Western Copper and Gold Corp. (WRN:TSX; WRN:NYSE.MKT) formally submitted the environmental and socioeconomic effects (ESE) statement for its copper-gold-silver-molybdenum Casino project in Yukon, kicking off the Yukon Environmental and Socioeconomic Assessment Board's (YESAB's) roughly three-year Panel Review process, reported Dr. Stefan Ioannou, analyst at Cormark Securities, in an Oct. 7 research note.
"ESE submission marks a major milestone in Casino's advancement," Ioannou wrote. "The extensive body of technical work includes environmental and socioeconomic baselines studies, as well as assessments underpinned in part by consultation with First Nations."
34% Return Potential
Cormark reiterated its CA$4 per share target price on the Canadian exploration and development company, trading at the time of Ioannou's report at about CA$2.98, the analyst noted. From this price, the return to target is 34%.
Western Copper and Gold remains a Buy.
The company has 201.6 million shares outstanding, a market cap of CA$600.9 million and a 52-week range of CA$1.28–2.98 per share.
About the Process
Ioannou explained that YESAB's Panel Review is the highest level of project assessment in the territory, and Casino is the first project to undergo it. That said, Casino represents one of the largest development opportunities in Canada's North, one that already received validation by equity shareholders, Rio Tinto Plc (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTNTF:OTCMKTS) and Mitsubishi Materials Corp: (5711:TKO). Further, Casino is the reason and basis for major infrastructure considerations in the region, including a green power solution and port upgrades.
The next steps in the Panel Review process are for YESAB to publish the ESE statement to its online registry after a brief review. The board's executive committee will perform a sufficiency check to ensure the statement meets all guidelines. The committee will form the review panel once established, the panel will assess Casino comprehensively.
Improving Economics
Ioannou made several points about Casino's economics. Casino is more than a project with a low copper head grade, he wrote. It has a significant gold credit and low strip ratio (0.43:1), too.
Also, if Casino ultimately is powered in part by a green power solution, an idea being explored and studied, this largely would eliminate the CA$1.9 billion (CA$1.9B) in life-of-mine (LOM) carbon tax included in the 2022 feasibility study. In a recent development regarding this energy alternative, Yukon Development Corp. released a positive report on connecting the Yukon and British Columbia (B.C.) power grids. It detailed construction of a CA$4B, 800-kilometer, high-voltage transmission line. Using the standard price of US$0.15 per kilowatt hour, the report indicated the corridor would contribute about CA$7.6B in annual gross domestic product to Yukon and B.C.
Further, using higher metals prices than the outdated ones used in the feasibility study, which were US$3.60 per pound (US$3.60/lb) copper and US$1,700 per ounce (US$1,700/oz) gold, improves Casino's economics. For example, using US$4.50/lb copper and US$3,500/oz gold, which are closer to current spot prices of US$4.80/lb copper and US$3,960/oz gold, the 2022 net asset value discounted at 8% nearly triples, increasing to about CA$6.8B from CA$2.3B. This demonstrates how significantly the project is leveraged to commodity prices and shows the two-for-one metals appeal Casino offers, noted the analyst.
"At current spot metal pricing, gold accounts for about 47% of the project's LOM revenue in our model (versus copper at about 35%)," Ioannou wrote.
Ideal Takeout Target
Ioannou highlighted Casino's large-scale potential and how it must be attractive to majors, many of which are seeking "generational opportunities." The fact that Rio Tinto and Mitsubishi Materials are equity shareholders of Western Copper and Gold draws attention to Casino.
Also, the project is one, the analyst wrote, that would benefit from a "multifaceted (synergistic) development strategy."
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Disclosures for Cormark Securities Inc., Western Copper and Gold Corp., October 7, 2025
The analyst viewed the material operations of Western Copper & Gold Corp.. This report has been prepared by Cormark Securities Inc., which is regulated by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization ("CIRO"). Cormark Securities Inc. and, its wholly owned affiliate, Cormark Securities (USA) Limited (collectively "CSI") are in compliance with CIRO and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority research report rules and regulations where they apply. The firm does not receive compensation for any non-securities or non-investment banking related services. Neither the analyst nor the associate (if any), or any member of his/her household, serve as an officer, director or employee or serve in any advisory capacity of the subject company(ies) under their coverage. CSI actively solicits investment banking business, including underwriting and advisory services, from its research coverage list. As a result, although uncertain, revenue from these activities may be received at any time. All relevant disclosures required by regulatory rules (including CIRO) and Cormark's recommendation statistics and research dissemination policies can be obtained at www.cormark.com. Cormark will provide, upon request, a statement of its financial condition and a list of the names of its Directors and senior officers.
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