Mining Company Advances Major Yukon Copper-Gold Project
Research Report

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Disclosures for National Bank of Canada, Western Copper and Gold, October 6, 2025

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Western Copper and Gold Corp. (WRN:TSX; WRN:NYSE.MKT) achieved a key permitting milestone by submitting an environmental and socioeconomic effects statement (ESE) for its Casino project to the Yukon Environmental and Socioeconomic Assessment Board (YESAB) after nearly a decade in the works, reported Rabi Nizami, analyst with National Bank of Canada's Financial Markets (NBCFM) unit in an October 6 research note.

"The ESE submission formally kicks off the panel review process under the Yukon Environmental and Socioeconomic Assessment Act, which, if concluded positively, will allow the Casino project to advance to the next stage of permitting," Nizami wrote.

35% Return Potential

At the time of Nizami's report, Western Copper and Gold was trading at about CA$2.78 per share, at a discounted price:net asset value (NAV) of 0.53x, the analyst wrote. The discounted NAV could be increased and the valuation gap widened if the permitting timeline were sped up.

NBCFM reiterated its Outperform rating on the mining company and its CA$3.75 per share price target, implying a 35% return from the price at the time of the report.

"Our Outperform rating on Western Copper and Gold is driven by the deeply discounted valuation (feasibility NPV8% of CA$5 billion [CA$5B] at US$4.50 per pound copper and US$2,500 per ounce gold), and supportive outlook for the Casino project as a viable copper-gold development opportunity that has visibility to advance to the next stage of permitting, in alignment with Canada's critical minerals strategy," Nizami wrote.

Further, large-scale and long-life potential of Casino makes it an attractive takeout target, in a safe jurisdiction, for major copper-gold producers.

Good Timing, Long Process

Nizami highlighted that the timing of the ESE submission is fortuitous. Metals prices are supportive, awareness of the project's scale and scarcity among the few available major copper projects is growing, and there are beneficial policy tailwinds that could incentivize critical infrastructure development in Yukon.

The analyst explained the next steps regarding the ESE. YESAB's executive committee will do a sufficiency check on the ESE to ensure it meets all guidelines. The committee will review the project comprehensively and, if needed, request more information from Western Copper and Gold. The full ESE report will be available online in the coming week. The committee will establish the panel. After the panel review, the highest project assessment level and first of its kind in Yukon, will take place. This three-year process begins with a technical analysis of the project and is followed by public hearings and a panel report.

Grid Connect Report Highlights

The Yukon Development Corp. recently published a report on the benefits of a Yukon-to-British Columbia power transmission line, as proposed through the Yukon-British Columbia Grid Connect project. Such a line, Nizami wrote, "would be transformative for mining in the territory."

According to the report, a transmission line would result in up to CA$7.6B of long-term economic growth and create 36,000 jobs over 50 years. It would prevent about 9,000,000 tons of greenhouse gases from being emitted.  

Mining is one of the main Yukon-focused benefits, the report noted. Of the four Yukon mining projects assessed, Casino would contribute the most, about 65%, to the total CA$81.2B impact on gross domestic product.

The report presented two possible routes for the transmission line, either one of which could support bringing Casino online. Really, Nizami wrote, it is the other way around. For the Grid Connect initiative to get approved, it needs the large-scale Casino project, a consistent, long-term power offtake partner.

Grid Connect aligns with Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney's vision under the Building Canada Act and was one of 32 major projects on a draft list of candidates for fast-track approval. The first five priority nation-building projects were selected and announced in September, and two copper mining projects were among them. At the time, Carney said more chosen projects would be announced in the coming weeks.

Last year, Natural Resources Canada conditionally approved up to CA$40 million (CA$40M) in funding for Yukon to do a prefeasibility study of connecting its power grid with British Columbia's. In April, the funding amount was increased by 25% to CA$50M.

Events to Come

Nizami wrote that potential catalysts to watch out for are progress updates on the YESAB panel review and announcements of external events that could affect Western Copper and Gold and/or Casino. The latter includes news about the Grid Connect project and news about federal and territorial incentive programs for critical minerals development.