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TICKERS: WRN

Coverage Launched on Co.; PT Implies 220% Gain
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Western Copper and Gold Corp. (WRN:TSX; WRN:NYSE.MKT) owns the Casino copper-gold-molybdenum-silver project in Yukon, a key development asset and ideal takeout target, and boasts two strategic investors, noted a Stifel initiation report.

Western Copper and Gold Corp. (WRN:TSX; WRN:NYSE.MKT) garnered research coverage by Stifel, the firm having initiated on the Canadian mining explorer-developer with a Buy rating and a CA$5.50 per share target price, Managing Director Ralph Profiti reported in a June 10 research note.

"The Casino project's development potential as a large-scale, open-pit copper porphyry in a Tier 1 jurisdiction, with a low-strip ratio and low cash costs due to significant gold credits positions Western Copper and Gold for continued rerating amid project derisking catalysts (permitting, power, partnerships) and our forecasted copper market deficits starting in 2028," Stifel's Profiti wrote.

220% Return Implied

At the time of Profiti's report, Western Copper and gold was trading at about CA$1.72 per share, he wrote. From this price, the return to Stifel's target price is 220%.

Profiti wrote that high-quality, undeveloped copper-gold projects in favorable jurisdictions, like Casino, "should command strategic importance and premium valuations in the next copper cycle due to their scarcity, size and suitability for conventional mining."

The junior miner has 200 million shares outstanding, a market cap of CA$344 million and a 52-week range of CA$1–2 per share.

About The Project

Profiti presented the key attributes investors should know about Western Copper and Gold. First, he reviewed the company's flagship Casino project, its resources and reserves, and its projected economics.

Casino is a development asset in the emerging Whitehorse Mining District in west-central Yukon and integral to Canada's nation-building efforts. Casino hosts one of the world's largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits and one of the world's most economic greenfield copper-gold mining projects. Its Measured & Indicated resource currently is 2,490,000,000 tons (2.49 Bt) tons of 0.14% total copper, 0.18 grams per ton (0.18 g/t) gold and 1.5 g/t silver.

Proven & Probable (2P) reserves amenable to milling are 1.22 Bt of 0.19% total copper, 0.22 g/t gold, 0.021% molybdenum and 1.7 g/t silver. 2P reserves amenable to heap leaching are 209,600,000 tons at 0.26 g/t gold, 0.036% copper and 1.9 g/t silver.

These resources were calculated last in 2022 for the feasibility study (FS). Plus, significant exploration potential exists to the west of the current pit outline, including Ana and Casino B. These copper targets have shown mineralization similar to Casino's, and the gold targets have shown mineralization similar to that of Newmont Corp.'s (NEM:NYSE; NGT:TSX; NEM:ASX) Coffee deposit to the north.

Along with Newmont, other major miners actively advancing projects in the Yukon include Rio Tinto Plc RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTNTF:OTCMKTS), Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE) and Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE).

"We estimate (based on corporate data) that there are 30,000,000 ounces (30 Moz) of gold in the district, with significant exploration upside and strong government support to fund access to the area and strong community and First Nations support," Profiti wrote.

The 2022 feasibility study outlined an operation producing an annual average of 74,000 tons (74 Kt) of copper and 211,000 ounces (211 Koz) of gold and significant amounts of molybdenum and silver over Casino's 27-year life of mine. During years 1 through 4, average annual copper and gold production would be higher, at 109 Kt tons and 333 Koz, respectively. Initial capex would be CA$3.62 billion (CA$3.62B), and net cash costs would be (US$0.80) per pound [(US$0.80/lb)] of copper.

The project economics contained in the FS are a CA$2.33B after-tax net present value discounted at 8% (NPV8%) and an after-tax 18.1% internal rate of return (IRR), using a copper price of US$3.60/lb and a gold price of US$1,700 per ounce (US$1,700/oz). At higher metals prices, US$4/lb copper and US$2,500/oz gold, the project would return a CA$4.35B after-tax NPV8% and a 25.3% after-tax IRR.

Stifel's base-case scenario for Casino, based on US$4.25/lb copper and US$2,400/oz gold, yields an NPV9% of CA$4.19B and an after-tax IRR of 23.8%.

Stifel estimates that production at Casino could start in 2032.

Permitting to Start Soon

Profiti discussed permitting of Casino with the Yukon Environmental and Socioeconomic Assessment Board (YESAB). YESAB's Panel Review process will begin once Western Copper and gold submits the environmental and socioeconomic effects (ESE) statement to the board. The company noted in November 2023 that it is aiming to officially file the document in July 2025, which is next month.

The several-year permitting process with YESAB includes establishment of and review of the ESE by an independent panel, a technical analysis and public hearings, followed by publication of the Decision Document, explained Profiti. Construction at Casino potentially could start in H2/28.

"Significant policy tailwinds for critical minerals resource development in Canada serve to reinforce our view of Casino advancing through permitting into development," Profiti wrote.

A Look at Infrastructure

Casino will need infrastructure that does not yet exist in the region but is developing, Profiti pointed out. An access road to Casino needs to be funded and built. For power, the potential for connecting the power grids of Yukon and British Columbia with a high-energy transmission line is being studied despite Casino's power option in the FS being liquefied natural gas. Casino would be integral to building out the grid connection concept. The Port of Skagway, about 560 kilometers from Casino, is Western Copper and Gold's choice for exporting its copper concentrate.

Casino as M&A Target

The explorer-developer has two strategic investors: Rio Tinto with a 9.6% equity stake and Mitsubishi Materials with a 5% equity stake, Profiti noted.

"We see Rio Tinto and Mitsubishi Materials as highly committed strategic investors, reinforcing our conviction that Casino will advance through permitting and into development," the managing director wrote.

Stifel thinks that once Casino permitting and infrastructure development are further along, it is likely Casino will be consolidated into a larger mining entity to allow for potentially a greater scale of operations. Stifel also believes Rio Tinto is "the most logical suitor." That said, Casino may be a good fit for Agnico Eagle, Barrick Mining Corp. (ABX:TSX; B:NYSE) or First Quantum Minerals Ltd. (FM:TSX; FQM:LSE) or potentially a joint venture (JV) agreement involving more than one of these majors. (Rio Tinto and First Quantum formed a JV in March 2023 on the La Granja project in Peru, Profiti noted.)

"Casino is well-positioned as a mergers and acquisitions (M&A) target, offering exposure to a high-grade porphyry with district-scale potential and improving infrastructure access expected to enhance project economics," wrote Profiti.

Relationship with First Nations

Profiti highlighted that Western Copper and Gold has "open, cooperative and transparent engagement" with the First Nations in the region: the Selkirk, Little Salmon Carmacks, Tr'ondek Hwech'in, White River and Kluane. The company's recently signed cooperation agreements, in part recognizing historical traditions, should make it easier for WRN and each of the First Nations to be affected by Casino to enter into separate impact and benefit agreements (IBAs).

"We expect an initial IBA with the Selkirk First Nation (given the greater degree of impact) as a key catalyst towards appreciation of a strong social license to operate and is a key factor in maintaining timelines of permitting, development and financing milestones," wrote Profiti.

Well-Versed in Financing, Strategy

In his initiation report, Profiti included a bio for all seven members of Western Copper and Gold's management team and for all seven directors. He noted that the president and chief executive officer (CEO), Sandeep Singh, joined the company in this role in February 2024. Previously, Singh was the president/CEO of Osisko Gold Royalties and before that, an investment banker focused on the North American metals and mining industry for 15 years.

"Singh has advised numerous mining companies on financing alternatives and strategic matters as well as having acted on some of the most complex and value-enhancing M&A transactions in the mining sector," Profiti wrote.


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Important Disclosures:

  1. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Barrick Mining Corp. Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd., Osisko Gold Royalties, and Rio Tinto Plc.
  2.  Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor/employee. 
  3.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company. 

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Disclosures for Stifel, Western Copper and Gold Corp., June 10, 2025

Important Disclosures and Certifications I, Ralph M. Profiti, research analyst, certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers; and I, Ralph M. Profiti, certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report. Our European Policy for Managing Research Conflicts of Interest is available at www.stifel.com/institutional/ ImportandDisclosures. Western Copper & Gold Corp. (WRN CN) as of June 09, 2025 (in CAD) Price (CAD) 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 *Represents the value(s) that changed. Buy=B; Speculative Buy=SB; Hold=H; Sell=S; Discontinued=D; Suspended=SU; Initiation=I The disclosures contained in this report are applicable as of the date of publication. For a current price chart with historical rating and target price changes as well as current disclosures for WRN CN go to http://stifel2.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action?ticker=WRN CN Stifel or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Western Copper & Gold Corp. in the next 3 months. The equity research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report receive(s) compensation based on various factors, including Stifel's overall revenue, which includes investment banking revenue. Investment Rating System Our investment rating system is defined as follows: Buy - We expect a total return of greater than 10% over the next 12 months with total return equal to the percentage price change plus dividend yield. Speculative Buy1 - We expect a total return of greater than 30% over the next 12 months, with total return equal to the percentage price change plus dividend yield, accompanied by substantially higher than normal risk including the possibility of a binary outcome. Hold - We expect a total return between -5% and 10% over the next 12 months with total return equal to the percentage price change plus dividend yield. Sell - We expect a total return below -5% over the next 12 months with total return equal to the percentage price change plus dividend yield. Occasionally, we use the ancillary rating of Suspended (SU) to indicate a long-term suspension in rating and/or target price, and/or coverage due to applicable regulations or Stifel policies. Alternatively, Suspended may indicate the analyst is unable to determine a "reasonable basis" for rating/target price or estimates due to lack of publicly available information or the inability to quantify the publicly available information provided by the company and it is unknown when the outlook will be clarified. Suspended may also be used when an analyst has left the firm. 1 This rating is only utilised by Stifel Canada. Of the securities we rate, 48% are rated Buy, 0.25% are rated Speculative Buy, 24% are rated Hold, 1% are rated Sell and 27% are rated Suspended. Within the last 12 months, Stifel or an affiliate has provided investment banking services for 18%, 4%, 0% and 4% of the companies whose shares are rated Buy (includes Speculative Buy), Hold, Sell and Suspended, respectively. Within the last 12 months, Stifel or an affiliate has provided material services for 34%, 25%, 20%, 33% and 14% of the companies whose shares are rated Buy, Speculative Buy, Hold, Sell and Suspended, respectively. The securities of the company or companies mentioned in this report may not be registered in certain states or other jurisdictions and as a result, the securities may not be eligible for sale in some states or jurisdictions. Additionally, the securities of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with, nor be subject to the reporting requirements of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The information contained herein is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any state or jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be prohibited.

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