Rare Earth Breakthrough in Wyoming Sparks Strategic US Momentum

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Ramaco Resources Inc. (METC:NASDAQ; METCB:NASDAQ) has issued numerous press releases recently.

On October 27, the company reported a net loss of US$13.3 million and adjusted EBITDA of US$8.4 million for the third quarter of 2025. Despite persistent pressure in the metallurgical coal market, the company recorded its highest-ever quarter-end liquidity at US$272.4 million, including more than US$77 million in net cash. This strong liquidity position was bolstered by a US$200 million public equity offering completed in August.

The company sold 873,000 tons of metallurgical coal during the quarter at an average realized price of US$120 per ton. Cash costs per ton sold declined to US$97, down from US$103 in the previous quarter. These cost controls helped increase cash margins per ton from US$20 to US$23 sequentially.

Year-over-year, total tons sold declined 15% from 1.02 million tons in Q3 2024, while average prices decreased 12% from US$136 per ton. Nevertheless, Ramaco maintained its first-quartile cost position in the U.S. metallurgical coal industry, aided by disciplined production and spending.

At quarter-end, Ramaco had total debt of US$116.5 million and cash and cash equivalents of US$193.8 million. The company redeemed its 2026 Senior Notes and replaced them with a US$65 million issuance of 2030 Senior Notes at a lower interest rate of 8.25%.

Sales commitments for 2025 were fully allocated at the high end of the company's guidance range, totaling 3.9 million tons. Of this volume, 3.3 million tons were contracted at fixed prices averaging US$128 per ton. Domestic commitments of 1.6 million tons were secured at an average price of US$151 per ton, while export commitments of 1.7 million tons averaged US$107 per ton.

Ramaco also announced on October 30 the signing of a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) with the U.S. Department of Energy's National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL). The 5-year umbrella agreement builds on a longstanding relationship between Ramaco and NETL, and is expected to support collaborative research across rare earth elements, critical minerals, carbon derivatives, and advanced materials. The company plans to integrate artificial intelligence, advanced computing, and quantum technologies to enhance its exploration and processing efforts at the Brook Mine in Wyoming.

"This far-reaching new CRADA agreement will initially focus on Ramaco's rare earth and critical mineral development and reflects the strength of our longstanding partnership with NETL," said Ramaco Chairman and CEO Randall Atkins in the announcement. "We hope that our work through this agreement will help accelerate Ramaco's own commercial efforts at the Brook Mine as we seek to advance the nation's strategic interest in rapidly developing new critical mineral supply capability."

NETL, which was involved in the original discovery of rare earths at the Brook Mine in 2018, will collaborate through the DOE's METALLIC program, a multi-laboratory initiative supporting technology development across the critical minerals supply chain.

Most recently, on October 31, Ramaco announced it would be collaborating with Goldman Sachs on its initiative to establish a Strategic Critical Minerals Terminal ("SCMT") at Ramaco's Brook Mine facility in Wyoming.

According to the press release, "Ramaco believes that its Brook Mine site offers significant advantages for the SCMT stockpile placement due to its strategic location and infrastructure access. The site benefits from direct connectivity to the BNSF railroad and is adjacent to a major interstate highway, both of which are expected to facilitate efficient transportation and distribution of materials to defense contractors and industrial consumers nationwide."

Accelerating the Dual Platform: Metallurgical Coal and Critical Minerals

Ramaco's third quarter was marked by the rapid advancement of its Brook Mine rare earth and critical minerals project in Sheridan, Wyoming. Following a July groundbreaking and a September expansion announcement, the company formally initiated the construction of its Pilot Plant Oxide facility in October. This facility is designed to process several tons per day of rare earth and critical mineral feedstock and is expected to be operational by mid-2026.

As part of the expansion, Ramaco increased its base case annual oxide production estimate to 3,414 short tons, up 175% from the 1,240-ton level cited in the Fluor Preliminary Economic Assessment. According to internal projections, this expansion could generate US$1.04 billion in revenue and US$552 million in EBITDA at steady-state operation.

In a concurrent strategic move, Ramaco announced plans to develop the nation's first Strategic Critical Minerals Terminal (SCMT) at the Brook Mine site. The facility is expected to serve as a national stockpile for rare earth and critical mineral oxides. Ramaco intends to process both its own ore and potentially third-party ore at this site, anchoring a vertically integrated domestic supply chain.

According to company data, approximately 99% of Brook Mine's projected annual revenue will come from seven high-value materials: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, terbium, scandium, gallium, and germanium. Several of these elements, such as scandium and terbium, have recently seen significant price increases and are currently restricted from export to the United States by China.

Ramaco has partnered with Zeton Inc. to build a prototype pilot plant in Ontario, which will be relocated to Wyoming once the local pilot facility is complete. The Prefeasibility Study, led by Hatch Inc., remains on track for completion in early 2026.

The company's dual platform strategy positions it as both a cost-advantaged metallurgical coal producer and a vertically integrated developer of rare earth and critical minerals. According to Ramaco's management, this approach supports U.S. national supply chain goals and broadens its participation in industrial and defense markets.

Global Trade Tensions Push Rare Earth Security to Forefront

Global concerns over rare earth supply intensified in mid-October after China moved to tighten export restrictions. According to an October 13 report from Seeking Alpha, rare earth-related stocks surged following the announcement, as markets reacted to the potential for supply disruptions across key industries such as semiconductors and electric vehicles. The report noted that rare earths are essential to high-tech applications, including defense systems, and that the United States had become "too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals." With China accounting for approximately 90% of global rare earth product output, the move has accelerated international efforts to diversify supply chains.

The following day, CNBC reported that China's Ministry of Commerce imposed broad controls on rare earth exports intended for military use. Analysts warned the decision could significantly hinder U.S. defense production. Gracelin Baskaran, a critical minerals expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the action "undermined the development of the defense industrial base at a time when there is rising global tension."

Rare earth magnets remain critical to U.S. defense capabilities, forming key components in fighter aircraft, submarines, drones, and missile systems. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, about 70% of U.S. rare earth imports come from China, while the International Energy Agency has estimated that China controls roughly 60% of mining and more than 90% of refining capacity worldwide.

Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel called it "scandalous" that the U.S. lacks a rare earth strategic reserve, citing heavy dependence on foreign refining. Wolfe Research analysts described China's new export licensing rules as "massively disruptive," with the potential to impact defense, semiconductor, and automotive sectors if fully implemented. Economists, including Alicia Garcia Herrero of Natixis, highlighted the exposure of major U.S. companies such as Apple, Nvidia, and leading automakers to the tightening trade environment.

Later that day, Global Market Insights reported growing investor interest in uranium and rare earth elements, citing increased demand linked to clean energy goals and geopolitical uncertainty. The report noted that companies involved in both sectors were seeing renewed attention as nations and industries prioritized critical mineral independence and sought to secure stable domestic sources.

Expert Analysis Highlights Long-Term Strategic Potential

On October 29, Chen Lin of What is Chen Buying? What is Chen Selling? issued a positive assessment of Ramaco Resources following the company's third quarter earnings call and recent developments in the global rare earths market. He noted that despite met coal price pressures, Ramaco's rare earths segment remained on track, citing the company's announced increase in oxide production from 1,240 to 3,414 tons per year. He referenced internal EBITDA projections of over US$500 million annually by 2028 under prior assumptions and stated that "they can easily make 1 billion per year using the spot price."

Chen emphasized scandium as a central revenue driver for Ramaco's Brook Mine, estimating that it could account for more than 50% of projected revenue. He highlighted that the U.S. Department of Defense had recently signed a scandium contract at pricing 60% higher than Ramaco's base assumptions.

"This is an obvious case that needs government support," he stated, suggesting the company would benefit from a similar offtake contract or floor pricing to advance to commercial production.

He also cited the potential of the Brook Mine to produce large quantities of critical minerals such as gallium and germanium and viewed Ramaco as an increasingly strategic player in the U.S. rare earth supply chain. According to Chen, the U.S. will likely use the current grace period in Chinese export control enforcement to build a domestic strategic reserve of rare earths. He considered Ramaco a key part of that effort, stating, "I believe the U.S. will use the 1-year 'grace period' to build up rare earth supply as quickly as possible."

Chen outlined multiple investment approaches for Ramaco stock, ultimately reiterating his support for the company based on its long-term prospects and strategic positioning in the rare earth sector. 

Ownership and Share Structure¹

About 8.78% of the company is owned by insiders and management, and about 67.43% is owned by institutions. The rest is retail.

Top shareholders include Yorktown Partners with 17.02%, Discovery Capital Management with 6.22%, and BlackRock Institutional Trust with 5.05%. 

Its market cap is US$1.77 billion with 55.16 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of US$6.25 to US$57.80.