A deadly mudslide at Freeport-McMoRan Inc.'s (FCX:NYSE) Grasberg mine in Indonesia has rocked the global copper market, forcing the company to declare force majeure and halting operations at the world's second-largest copper mine. The incident occurred on September 8 when approximately 800,000 metric tons of wet material surged through multiple levels of the underground Grasberg Block Cave, killing two workers and leaving five others missing. According to Reuters, Freeport stated that the mine may not return to pre-incident operating rates until 2027, with copper production in the fourth quarter expected to be "insignificant" due to the extent of the damage.
This unexpected disruption triggered a sharp rise in copper prices, with three-month futures jumping more than 2% to $10,496 per ton on the CME. In London, prices surged to US$10,485 per ton, marking a 15-month high. As reported by Mining.com on September 24, the market reacted swiftly, sending Freeport's stock down as much as 17% and wiping out US$11 billion in market value. Meanwhile, rival producers like Glencore Plc (GLEN:LSE; GLN:JSE; GLCNF:OTCMKTS), Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK:TSX; TECK:NYSE), and Antofagasta Plc (ANTO:LSE;ANFGF:OTCMKTS) saw gains of 3% to 7.4% on the day. The Australian market also felt the shift. As noted by Eddy Sunarto of Market Index, BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP:NYSE; BHPLF:OTCPK) and Rio Tinto Plc (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTNTF:OTCMKTS) each rose around 3%, while copper-focused players such as Sandfire Resources Ltd. (SFRRF:OTCQB; SFR:ASX) and Capstone Copper Mining Corp. (CS:TSX) surged more than 8%.
The implications for global supply are significant. Grasberg accounted for roughly 4% of global copper output in 2024, producing 815,000 metric tons. According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the cumulative production loss through the end of 2026 could total 600,000 tons. That's nearly equivalent to the annual production at Collahuasi, the third-largest copper mine in the world. Reuters reported that BMI has revised its 2026 forecast, increasing the expected global copper supply deficit from just 72,000 tons to 400,000 tons.
Supply Side Crunch
The supply crunch doesn't end there. Citigroup has warned of a similar shortfall, projecting a further deficit of 350,000 tons in 2027 unless prices rise significantly to encourage new supply. Morgan Stanley also weighed in, pointing out that prior to the Grasberg disaster, global copper output was expected to grow by about 2.3% in 2025. Now, the removal of even 0.22 million tons from this year's forecast, as estimated by Freeport's updated guidance could deepen what was already an anticipated supply deficit. As Robert Sinn wrote on September 24, "the incident at GBC is a very big deal," not only for Freeport but for the entire global copper market.
Grasberg is not the only site to suffer setbacks this year. Ivanhoe Mines Ltd.'s (IVN:TSX; IVPAF:OTCQX) Kakula operation in the Democratic Republic of Congo was hit by seismic activity and flooding in May, and Chilean state producer Codelco faced a tunnel collapse at its El Teniente mine in July, resulting in six fatalities. Reuters columnist Andy Home observed that these incidents reflect a growing risk associated with the industry's dependence on a small number of mega-mines, which collectively produce over a third of the world's copper. "If something goes wrong," he wrote, "it is likely to go wrong at scale."
This disruption comes as the world enters what many believe is the early phase of a new commodity supercycle. According to a report by Ahead of the Herd, copper prices have climbed 16% year-to-date, driven by demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and even artificial intelligence, all of which rely heavily on copper wiring and components. BloombergNEF projects that copper demand will increase by 53% by 2040, with a potential supply shortfall of 30% by 2035.
While prices peaked near US$5.75 per pound earlier this year, they remain below the threshold many analysts believe is needed to justify major new mine development. Robert Sinn suggested that prices may need to exceed US$6 or even US$7 per pound to sufficiently incentivize new production, especially as ore grades continue to decline and permitting timelines stretch for decades. He noted, "We could see copper leap to US$7/lb" by 2026 if deficits persist and global demand accelerates.
Following The Shutdown
In the wake of Grasberg's shutdown, a number of other copper companies could be well-positioned to benefit. Many companies are strategically located to supply the U.S. domestic market, potentially commanding premium prices as geopolitical risk intensifies and governments prioritize domestic supply chains.
All signs now point to a tightening copper market in 2026 and beyond. Before the Grasberg disaster, analysts were split on whether the market would see a minor surplus or deficit. But now, the consensus is shifting. As reported by Robert Sinn, JP Morgan had previously forecast a 160,000-tonne deficit for 2026. With Grasberg's production curtailed, the scale of that shortfall may be significantly larger.
The broader impact of this disruption extends well beyond Freeport-McMoRan. As Reuters notes, "risk is becoming more concentrated as the world relies on a small group of mega mines." With demand climbing and new supply lagging, the pressure is on and the stakes have never been higher for the copper market.
While the disruption at Grasberg has tightened supply and shaken confidence in the market, it has also shifted investor focus toward other copper producers and developers. With long-term demand expected to rise and fewer large-scale operations available to meet it, companies with strong projects, solid balance sheets, and strategic positioning are gaining renewed attention. Here are three companies that may be well-positioned to benefit from the current landscape.
Coppernico Metals
Coppernico Metals Inc. (COPR:TSX; CPPMF: OTCQB; 9I3:FSE) has recently amended its option agreement with Aceros Arequipa S.A. (“Aceros”), extending the term to complete remaining work expenditures required at three key concessions of its Sombrero Project in southern Peru through December 2029.The updated terms allow Coppernico to proceed with surface work and drill permitting at Fierrazo, a copper-gold skarn target previously drilled in 2013. The company, through its subsidiary Sombrero Minerales SAC, will also manage environmental rehabilitation efforts and is working with Peruvian authorities on a reclamation plan.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Coppernico Metals Inc. (COPR:TSX; CPPMF:OTCQB;9l3:FSE)
Fierrazo has shown strong historical results. Although Aceros initially targeted iron mineralization, subsequent resampling by Auryn Resources, the company’s predecessor, in 2019 revealed notable copper and gold values. Historical highlights include 116 meters of 0.42% copper and 0.24 g/t gold, along with other long intercepts of mineralized skarn (see Auryn Resources news release dated June 13, 2019). Coppernico views the amendment as a critical step toward securing drill permits, with Chair and CEO Ivan Bebek emphasizing the company's commitment to both community engagement and environmental responsibility.
The Sombrero Project covers approximately 53,800 hectares and is believed to be an extension of the prolific Andahuaylas-Yauri belt. Fierrazo is one of several targets across the district, including Nioc, where channel sampling has confirmed additional magnetite skarn systems. According to Coppernico's latest investor presentation, geophysical surveys and drilling data support a 10-kilometer mineralized corridor between Fierrazo and Nioc.
An analyst at 3L Capital recently highlighted the project's scale potential, noting that even partial mineralization at depth could translate to a system in the hundreds of millions of tonnes. He described Sombrero as a multi-center system with significant room for discovery, pointing to large portions of the property that remain unsampled or untested by drilling.
To advance the project, Coppernico is preparing to file an Environmental Impact Assessment – Semi-detailed (EIA-Sd) for Fierrazo. Backed by CA$19 million in recent financing, including a strategic investment from Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK:TSX; TECK:NYSE), the company is positioned to pursue permitting, expand exploration, and initiate drilling. Further updates are expected on community partnerships, surface work, and new targets as Coppernico continues to unlock value across the broader Sombrero district.
Coppernico Metals is owned by strategic investors including Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK:TSX; TECK:NYSE) with 9.9% and Newmont Mining (NEM:NYSE, NGT:TSX, NEM:ASX) with 5.6%.
Overall, the ownership of Coppernico is 18.37% by institutions, 15.54% strategic entities, 5.13% management and insiders, and the rest, 60.96%, is retail.
Coppernico has 177.3 million outstanding shares and 145.47 million free float trading shares. Its market cap is CA$34.57 million. Its 52-week range is CA$0.12–CA$0.54 per share.
Giant Mining
Giant Mining Corp. (CSE: BFG; OTC:BFGFF; FWB:YW5) is advancing its Majuba Hill copper-silver-gold project in Pershing County, Nevada, with updated 3D modeling based on over 5,400 feet of new diamond core drilling from its 2024–2025 programs.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Giant Mining Corp. (CSE: BFG;OTC:BFGFF;FWB:YW5)
The company has continued its collaboration with RESPEC Company LLC to integrate this new geological data, which will help refine breccia geometry and identify controls on mineralization across key targets, including the Northern Breccia and Ball Park Breccia zones. Silver mineralization is also being incorporated into the updated exploration model.
President and CEO David Greenway described the collaboration with RESPEC as a "critical step in advancing Majuba Hill," emphasizing the model's role in strengthening the project's potential. Located just over 110 kilometers from Winnemucca, the 9,684-acre property benefits from infrastructure such as road access, water, and electricity. With more than 89,000 feet of historical drilling already completed, equivalent to roughly US$12.1 million in today's costs, Majuba Hill is supported by a solid technical foundation and a long record of production, including 2.8 million pounds of copper and nearly 190,000 ounces of silver.
Giant Mining is preparing for its next phase of drilling at Majuba Hill, fully financed and supported by its revised 3D model. The company also maintains a 20% interest in the Friday Gold Project in Idaho and continues to pursue an AI-assisted exploration strategy targeting both known and anomalous zones. Future studies will build on the refined model to assess the economic viability of mineralized areas, including zones open at depth and along strike.
Giant Mining's current share structure comprises 94,845,390 shares issued and outstanding, 48,980,558 warrants, 500,000 options, and 150,000 restricted share units (≈144.5 million fully diluted); as of September 2025, this implied a market capitalization of ~CA$19.0 million based on a CA$0.20 share price.
According to Giant Mining Corp., approximately 15.1% of its shares are held by insiders. The remaining shares are held by retail investors. Giant Mining Corp. has a market capitalization of approximately CA$14.2 million.
The company's shares are traded on the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE) under the ticker BFG, on the Deutsche Boerse AG (DB) under the ticker YW5, and on the OTC Pink Sheets in the U.S. under the ticker BFGFF, with these listings active since December 2017.
The company's Warrants are traded on the Canadian Securities Exchange (CSE) under the ticker BFG.WT.A and BFG.WT.B.
Emerita Resources
Emerita Resources Corp. (EMO:TSX.V; EMOTF:OTCQB; LLJA:FSE) has expanded its footprint in Spain's prolific Iberian Pyrite Belt with two new exploration licenses (San Antonio and Terranova) adjacent to its existing Iberian Belt West (IBW) Project. These licenses add 181 hectares, bringing the company's total holdings in the region to 8,144 hectares. The new ground lies along the same mineralized trend as La Romanera, one of three high-grade volcanogenic massive sulphide (VMS) deposits at IBW, and includes historically mined areas such as the Gibraltar, Vuelta Falsa, and Trimpancho sites. Emerita's President Joaquin Merino stated the San Antonio area will be a focus of systematic exploration due to its numerous mineralized occurrences and past production.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Emerita Resources Corp. (EMO:TSX.V; EMOTF:OTCQB; LLJA:FSE)
In a parallel move, Emerita signed a letter of intent to acquire 100% of Western Metallica's Spanish subsidiary, which owns the 1,237-hectare Nueva Celti copper project in Seville province. Nueva Celti has historical roots dating back to Roman times and recent drilling has returned promising results, including 26.1 meters grading 1.5% copper, 1.8% zinc, 27.6 g/t silver, and 0.7 g/t gold. The acquisition terms include CA$150,000 in cash and CA$250,000 in shares, along with a €90,000 drilling credit. Although a related-party transaction, it qualifies for exemptions under Canadian securities regulations.
Emerita's flagship IBW Project continues to show robust potential. A recently updated NI 43-101 resource estimate reports 18.96 million tonnes of indicated resources at 8.44% zinc-equivalent and 6.80 million tonnes of inferred resources at 8.72% ZnEq. Over 75% of the resource is in the Indicated category, and all three main deposits (La Romanera, La Infanta, and El Cura) remain open at depth and along strike. Metallurgical testing has returned high recovery rates, including over 91% for zinc and nearly 88% for copper. The company is evaluating a dual-stage processing circuit that includes flotation and cyanide-free leaching.
Additional fieldwork is planned across the expanded San Antonio Project area, where recent grab samples from historical waste dumps returned copper grades up to 13.2%. Emerita is also advancing its 14,500-hectare Nuevo Tintillo project, where surface sampling has identified new gold and silver-bearing trends, including assays up to 3.37 g/t gold and 165 g/t silver. These projects, combined with ongoing work at El Cura and the upcoming IBW pre-feasibility study, form a strong multi-asset development pipeline.
The company continues to await a legal ruling on the highly contested Aznalcóllar Project, which includes two past-producing mines and remains open at depth. A development study for Aznalcóllar has been completed and could proceed with underground mining methods if Emerita is awarded the title. With exploration and development active across multiple high-grade sites, Emerita is solidifying its position as a leading polymetallic explorer in Spain's premier mining district.
According to Refinitiv, management and insiders own 5.32% of Emerita. Of those, Michael Lawrence Guy owns 1.45% of the company, David Patrick Gower owns 1.3%, and Joaquin Merino-Marquez owns 1.04%.
Institutions own 1.12% of the company, including Merk Investments LLC, with 0.99%.
According to Refinitiv, there are 289.03 million shares outstanding with 248.71 million free float traded shares, while the company has a market cap of CA$424.88 million and trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.55 and CA$2.00.
| Want to be the first to know about interesting Copper investment ideas? Sign up to receive the FREE Streetwise Reports' newsletter. | Subscribe |
Important Disclosures:
- Giant Mining, Coppernico, and Emerita Resources are billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$3,000 and US$6,000.
- As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Giant Mining and Coppernico
- James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
- This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.
For additional disclosures, please click here.
