Lithium Prices Surge Amid Global Supply Disruptions

1. Atlas Lithium and Atlas Critical are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports and pay SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000. 
2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Atlas Lithium and Atlas Critical.
3. James Guttman wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
4.  This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company. 

For additional disclosures, please click here.

The lithium market experienced renewed volatility in August as supply interruptions in China and South America lifted prices, even without a fundamental shortage. On August 10, Reuters reported that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd. (CATL) suspended production at its Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi province after its permit expired. The mine represented about 46,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent annually, or roughly 3% of forecast global output for 2025. Reuters noted that the announcement "sparked a surge in lithium futures and miners' share prices, amid a broader crackdown on overcapacity."

Discovery Alert wrote on August 11 that CATL's suspension represented "a significant disruption to global lithium supply chains," with futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange immediately jumping 8%, marking the sharpest daily movement in more than 18 months. The site noted that lithium's nearly 90% price decline since its 2022 peak had left producers struggling, and that this disruption provided "the first significant upward price catalyst" after two years of declines.

Stockhead wrote on August 12 that Australian spodumene producers quickly rallied on the news, with Liontown Resources Limited (LTR.AX) gaining 17.75% to close at 99.5 cents and Pilbara Minerals Limited (PLS.AX) jumping 19.17% to US$2.30. Other producers such as Mineral Resources Limited (MIN.AX), IGO Limited (IGO.AX), and Piedmont Lithium Inc (PLL:NASDAQ) also posted double-digit gains.

Benchmark Mineral Intelligence wrote in a special issue dated August 14 that the Jianxiawo site accounted for around 30% of Jiangxi's lithium output, ~3% of global LCE supply, and ~5% of global concentrate. The report confirmed that battery-grade lithium carbonate trades in China were assessed at 7.5% higher week-over-week by August 13. Daisy Jennings-Gray, head of prices at Benchmark, stated that "EXW China lithium carbonate prices are already heading as high as 80,000–87,000 RMB/tonne (US$11.1–12.1/kg), after operations at CATL's Jianxiawo mine have been suspended."

Concerns grew further in mid-August when reports surfaced of an acid tank explosion at Albemarle's La Negra chemical plant in Chile. According to the Benchmark report, one of the plant's three production lines was forced offline for three days. The disruption was limited, but the news added to supply concerns that were already influencing market sentiment.

Sector Dynamics: Lithium Outlook Stabilizing Amid U.S. Growth and Chinese Supply Cuts

Despite the shutdowns, Benchmark noted that China held significant inventories of approximately 130,000 tonnes LCE in July. The report explained that "this week's price movements are primarily being driven by sentiment and reflect the speculative nature of lithium trading in China," as buyers evaluated the duration of mine closures and their impact on downstream converters.

On July 21, Investing News Network highlighted that despite multi-quarter price weakness, long-term drivers such as electric vehicle adoption and energy storage demand remained intact. Paul Lusty told the outlet that "the fundamentals are really still very strong, and these are anchored in some very powerful, mega trends that we see developing within the global economy; the urgent drive for climate change mitigation, the once in a generational shift in the global energy system, and also the rise of energy intensive technologies such as artificial intelligence."

Although disruptions at Jianxiawo and La Negra did not create an immediate structural deficit, sentiment-driven gains underscored the market's sensitivity to regional supply interruptions. The August 14 Benchmark report concluded that while "the market will not move into deficit in the near term or by 2026," uncertainty over the duration of closures and regulatory actions in China was likely to keep prices elevated in the short term.

In a Stockhead Mining article dated August 21, Kristie Batten highlighted the evolving role of the United States in lithium production and policy. While the U.S. had only one operating lithium mine in 2025, exploration investment surged, placing it third globally. S&P Global Commodity Insights analyst Alice Yu noted that the U.S. imported roughly 90% of its lithium supply in 2024, largely through intermediaries in South Korea and Japan that rely on refined Chinese material.

Yu reported that geopolitical shifts and energy security concerns were now shaping U.S. policy, with recent budget changes reducing support for electric vehicles while redirecting funds toward domestic critical minerals capacity. The U.S. Department of Energy recently announced plans to deploy nearly US$1 billion in funding for critical minerals, including up to US$500 million for lithium-related processing and recycling, and US$50 million for emerging technologies such as direct lithium extraction.

Despite recent price weakness, spodumene hit a 2025 high of US$1,000 per ton earlier in August. Two permitted U.S. projects, Lithium Americas' Thacker Pass and Ioneer's Rhyolite Ridge, remain under development, with Thacker Pass expected to enter production in late 2027. Additional projects designated as FAST-41 Transparency Projects aim to expedite permitting.

Yu concluded that strong 2024 exploration activity could yield long-term production gains, reinforcing the strategic imperative for supply diversification outside China.

UBS analysts signaled renewed optimism in the lithium sector following Chinese regulatory interventions that temporarily shuttered major production assets. According to a Stockhead on August 27, UBS upgraded its spodumene price forecasts by 9 to 32% across the 2026 to 2028 window, citing supply risks that could impact up to 240,000 tons per annum of lithium carbonate equivalent—roughly 15% of global supply. The bank now forecasts spodumene prices of US$1,250 per ton in 2026, US$1,150 per ton in 2027, and US$1,350 per ton in 2028.

UBS analysts Lachlan Shaw and Sky Han stated that additional mine suspensions in China's Yichun region and potential curtailments in Qinghai could further strain supply. At the time of the report, lithium carbonate prices had risen 18% since late July, following the suspension of CATL's Jianxiawo mine and various operations by Zijin's Zangge Mining. UBS's base case for 2025 includes a lithium carbonate price of 100,000 RMB per ton (approximately US$13,980 per ton). The analysts also raised equity ratings and price targets for several producers, citing market signals of tightening supply and growing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage.

Despite improvements in price sentiment, the report also noted downside risks if suspended operations return to market or high-cost supply from Africa is reactivated. As of the report date, lithium carbonate was priced at US$11,388 per ton, and 6% Li₂O spodumene at US$920 per ton.

Atlas Lithium Corp. 

Atlas Lithium Corp. (ATLX:NASDAQ) is a lithium development company focused on advancing its Neves Project to production. The Neves Project has received operational permitting, and its dense media separation plant has been acquired and transported to Brazil. With approximately 797 square kilometers of lithium mineral rights, Atlas Lithium owns the largest lithium exploration footprint in Brazil among publicly listed companies. Additionally, Atlas Lithium currently holds an approximate 30% ownership stake in Atlas Critical Minerals Corp. (JUPGF:OTCQB).

On August 18, Atlas reported strong exploration progress at Salinas. Initial drilling confirmed spodumene-rich mineralization close to surface, with grades above 2.0% Li₂O at depths of just 23 meters. CEO Marc Fogassa said the early results "exceeded our expectations," noting the project's potential as a future growth frontier alongside Neves.

The Neves Lithium Project remains Atlas's top priority. A definitive feasibility study prepared by SGS Canada projected an internal rate of return of 145%, a net present value of US$539 million, and a payback period of 11 months. Operating costs were estimated at US$489 per tonne, placing Neves among Brazil's lowest-cost projects. With mining concession approvals in place and a processing plant already transported to Brazil, Atlas is progressing Neves toward production while expanding its regional exploration portfolio.

Analysts have highlighted the company's positioning. On July 14, H.C. Wainwright & Co. analyst Heiko Ihle maintained a Buy rating with an US$18 target, citing low operating costs and offtake and investment agreements totaling US$80 million. On August 5, Alliance Global Partners analyst Jake Sekelsky reiterated a Buy rating following release of the Neves DFS. He called the study "an inflection point on the road to lithium production," referencing its US$540 million net present value at a lithium price assumption of US$1,700 per tonne and modest capital expenditure requirement of US$58 million.

What Could Drive Atlas Lithium Forward

Atlas Lithium's near-term catalysts remain centered on the Neves Lithium Project in Minas Gerais, as specified in its August 2025 Investor Presentation. A definitive feasibility study projected an after-tax net present value of US$539 million, an internal rate of return of 145%, and a payback period of just 11 months. Average annual production was estimated at 146,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate at an operating cost of US$489 per tonne, supported by a direct capital expenditure requirement of US$57.6 million.

The company has already secured all necessary operational permits to assemble and operate its processing plant and to begin mining operations at one of its ore bodies, with a dense media separation facility acquired and transported to Brazil. Atlas also benefits from strategic partnerships with Tier 1 buyers. Agreements with Chengxin, Yahua, and Mitsui & Co. included US$40 million in stock purchases already received and a committed US$40 million prepayment for offtake.

Exploration provides further optionality. The Neves Project hosts 84 mapped pegmatite outcrops, with over 4,500 soil samples collected and multiple anomalies identified for follow-up drilling. Early drilling at the Salinas Project, wholly owned by Atlas, has also confirmed near-surface spodumene mineralization, positioning it as a potential expansion frontier. 

Ownership and Share Structure

According to Atlas Lithium, its management and insiders own about 27% of the company's shares. Strategic partners, including Mitsui & Co., hold another roughly 10%. Institutional investors own about 10%. The rest, about 53%, is in retail.

Refinitiv reports that Atlas has 19.58M outstanding shares and 11.43M free float traded shares. Its market cap is US$117.3M. Its 52-week range is US$3.54–12.48 per share.