Perpetua Resources Corp. (PPTA:TSX; PPTA:NASDAQ) received a Clean Water Section 404 permit for its 100%-owned past-producing Stibnite gold-antimony, open-pit project in Idaho, from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, reported Cantor Fitzgerald Analyst Mike Kozak in a May 20 research note.
"This completes federal permitting for the project and comes after eight years of rigorous interagency process," Kozak wrote.
73% Implied Upside
On the news, Cantor reiterated its Buy recommendation and $22 per share price target on Perpetua, now trading at about $12.77 per share, noted the analyst.
The current target suggests a potential return for investors of 73%.
The explorer-developer has 71.5 million shares outstanding, a market cap of $914 million and a 52-week range of $5.01–15.44 per share.
What Happens Next
The analyst presented the pending critical elements for Stibnite to be a go. Perpetua still needs two minor state level permits for Stibnite, one for surface water discharge and the other for mine construction. The company is expected to receive them soon, and once in hand, construction can begin.
Perpetua also needs project financing and is expected to apply soon to EXIM for debt financing. In April 2024, EXIM gave Perpetua a Letter of Intent for up to $1.8 billion ($1.8B), then the entire project capex. In February of this year, though, the company updated the capex, in part to reflect current costs, and the new amount is $2.2B.
After the formal financing application is submitted, due diligence will follow. The two parties could finalize a debt package in late 2025-early 2026.
Likely Eventualities
Kozak pointed out two likely scenarios for Perpetua. One is that its shares rerate higher toward intrinsic value once debt financing through EXIM is completed.
The other is that Perpetua "attracts a joint venture partner on attractive terms," Kozak wrote, given that Stibnite will be one of the Top 5 largest gold mines and the single largest antimony mine in the U.S. once in production.
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