Perpetua Resources Corp.'s (PPTA:TSX; PPTA:NASDAQ) Stibnite gold-antimony project in Idaho remains one of the critical minerals projects the U.S. needs to achieve resource independence, Mike Niehuser, managing director and senior research analyst at ROTH Capital Partners, reported in a May 14 research note. The country's military relies on antimony trisulfide for use in various munitions and weapons systems, and China's ban on antimony exports to the U.S. persists.
"This underpins our investment thesis that, having received a favorable record of decision, Perpetua should receive consideration for Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) financing, leading to a positive mine decision and a higher valuation," Niehuser wrote.
55% Uplift Possible
ROTH Capital Partners has a US$19 per share target price on Perpetua, trading at the time of the report at about US$12.28 per share, noted Niehuser. The target implies a potential return of 55%.
Perpetua remains a Buy.
Focused on Financing
In the financing stage of Stibnite, Perpetua is expected to submit its formal loan application to EXIM soon, Niehuser wrote. Based on the economics of the project and the Trump Administration prioritizing it as one of critical importance to the nation, the likelihood is high that EXIM will agree to financing it. It also is likely such EXIM financing will be "preferable in tenor and amount to conventional debt financing," the analyst wrote.
Once financing for Stibnite is secured, Perpetua can make a construction decision, Niehuser wrote. His estimated timeline has construction there potentially starting this year.
Cos. in Supply Chain Amenable
Niehuser highlighted that the U.S. mining sector is on board with developing a domestic antimony supply chain, particularly involving Perpetua. For example, the private company, Sunshine Silver Mining & Refining, agreed, in a December 2024 memorandum of understanding with Perpetua, to assess whether and how it could refine the antimony produced at Stibnite.
Similarly, the United States Antimony Corp. (UAMY:NYSE.American) agreed back in 2021 to evaluate processing Stibnite's antimony concentrate, and earlier this year, announced it could produce 99.7% pure antimony trisulfide from it, at its facility in Marion, Ind.
"We believe both [companies] have the potential to process concentrate from the Stibnite gold project," Niehuser wrote.
From Ordinary to Extraordinary
Niehuser recapped how in a short period of time, Stibnite went from being a typical gold project to one of crucial importance to the U.S. because of its antimony byproduct. Initially, the analyst's investment thesis centered on Stibnite's high gold grades, the potential for low-cost open-pit operations at the project and Perpetua's years of formulating an environmental solution for reversing previous mining-caused environmental damage and restoring local fish habitat. It was because of these factors that Stibnite would be permitted, Niehuser believed.
A series of recent circumstances, however, changed that and put Perpetua and Stibnite in the national spotlight. The U.S. military increasingly became aware of antimony's importance to it and the defense industry, leading to about US$75 million (US$75M) in government grants being awarded to Perpetua to help it advance Stibnite. Then in September 2024, China halted antimony exports to the U.S., and the country elected Donald Trump for president. Since the latter, he and his administration have prioritized advancement of domestic critical minerals projects to re-establish a manufacturing base at home and boost national defense capabilities. Recently, the White House selected Stibnite as a transparency project.
"We believe the current conditions should persist through the end of the current administration," Niehuser wrote.
Stock Specifics
The analyst reported that Perpetua has 71.54 million shares outstanding. It has a market cap of US$839.92M. Its share price in the past 52 weeks has been between US$5.05 and US$15.18 per share.
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Important Disclosures:
- Perpetua Resources Corp. is a billboard sponsor of Streetwise Reports and pays SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000..
- Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor.
- This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports' terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.
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Disclosures for ROTH Capital Markets, Perpetua Resources Corp., May 14, 2025
Regulation Analyst Certification ("Reg AC"): The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report certifies the following under Reg AC: I hereby certify that all views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Disclosures: Within the last twelve months, ROTH Capital Partners, or an affiliate to ROTH Capital Partners, has received compensation for investment banking services from Perpetua Resources Corp.. Within the last twelve months, ROTH Capital Partners, or an affiliate to ROTH Capital Partners, has managed or co-managed a public offering for Perpetua Resources Corp..
Each box on the Rating and Price Target History chart above represents a date on which an analyst made a change to a rating or price target, except for the first box, which may only represent the first note written during the past three years. Distribution Ratings/IB Servicesshows the number of companies in each rating category from which Roth or an affiliate received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 month. Distribution of IB Services Firmwide IB Serv./Past 12 Mos. as of May 13, 2025 Rating Count Percent Count Percent Buy [B] 367 77.92 110 29.97 Neutral [N] 85 18.05 5 5.88 Sell [S] 0 0.00 0 0 Under Review [UR] 18 3.82 3 16.67 Our rating system attempts to incorporate industry, company and/or overall market risk and volatility. Consequently, at any given point in time, our investment rating on a stock and its implied price movement may not correspond to the stated 12-month price target. Ratings System Definitions - ROTH Capital employs a rating system based on the following: Buy: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return of at least 10% over the next 12 months. Neutral: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation of a total return between negative 10% and 10% over the next 12 months. Sell: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, that indicates an expectation that the price will depreciate by more than 10% over the next 12 months. Under Review [UR]: A rating, which at the time it is instituted and or reiterated, indicates the temporary removal of the prior rating, price target and estimates for the security. Prior rating, price target and estimates should no longer be relied upon for UR-rated securities. Not Covered [NC]: ROTH Capital does not publish research or have an opinion about this security. ROTH Capital Partners, LLC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking or other business relationships with the covered companies mentioned in this report in the next three months. The material, information and facts discussed in this report other than the information regarding ROTH Capital Partners, LLC and its affiliates, are from sources believed to be reliable, but are in no way guaranteed to be complete or accurate. This report should not be used as a complete analysis of the company, industry or security discussed in the report. Additional information is available upon request. This is not, however, an offer or solicitation of the securities discussed. Any opinions or estimates in this report are subject to change without notice. An investment in the stock may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Additionally, an investment in the stock may involve a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. No part of this report may be reproduced in any form without the express written permission of ROTH. Copyright 2025. Member: FINRA/SIPC.
