Panoro Energy ASA (PEN:OSE; 1PZ:FRA) released Q1/25 production numbers and reiterated production guidance for the year, reported Auctus Advisors Analyst Stephane Foucaud in a May 7 research note.
115% Return Potential
Auctus maintained its NOK49 per share target price on the England-based oil and gas company, now trading at about NOK22.75 per share, Foucaud noted. The target implies a potential return for investors of 115%.
A Look at Production
Panoro's production in Q1/25 totaled 12,000 barrels of oil per day (12 Mbbl/d), reported Foucaud. Of this, 6.841 Mbbl/d were produced in Gabon, 3.661 Mbbl/d in Equatorial Guinea and 1.492 Mbbl/d in Tunisia. Production in Tunisia was up quarter over quarter compared to 1.467 Mbbl/d in Q4/24, post low-cost workovers.
Output in Equatorial Guinea during this first quarter was halted temporarily due to the Ceiba Cluster operation being down; it now is back online. Auctus estimated total production in Equatorial Guinea for Q2/25, Q3/25 and Q4/25 to be about 3.8 Mbbl/d (working interest).
Near-Term Expectations
Foucaud presented some forward looking numbers for Panoro. He reported that the oil and gas firm reiterated its full-year 2024 production guidance of 11–13 Mbbl/d.
As for free cash flow, Auctus estimates that the energy company will generate US$75 million (US$75M) in the remaining three quarters of 2025, assuming an oil price of US$60 per barrel, the analyst wrote. Auctus expects cash flow between this year and 2027 to equal Panoro's current market cap.
Foucaud pointed out that Panoro is allowed to distribute up to US$45M via dividends and share buybacks, representing a total yield over 19%.
"Even with additional exploration expenditures, there remains ample capacity to support future shareholder distributions," the analyst added.
Also looking ahead, Auctus expects Panoro to drill additional exploration wells in Gabon next year. Also, it anticipates clarity on the potential of the new licenses in Gabon and Equatorial Guinea.
"Lower Brent prices could present attractive acquisition opportunities," Foucaud wrote.
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