Copper-Gold Co. Gains Research Coverage by Analyst
Research Report

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Disclosures for BMO Capital Markets, Western Copper and Gold Corp., January 23, 2025

Analyst's Certification I, Rene Cartier, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in generating new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service to clients. Analysts employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and/or BMO Capital Markets Limited are not registered as research analysts with FINRA. These analysts may not be associated persons of BMO Capital Markets Corp. and therefore may not be subject to the FINRA Rule 2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account. Company Specific Disclosures Disclosure 1: BMO Capital Markets has undertaken an underwriting liability with respect to Western Copper and Gold within the past 12 months. Disclosure 2: BMO Capital Markets has provided investment banking services for remuneration with respect to Western Copper and Gold within the past 12 months. Disclosure 3: BMO Capital Markets has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities with respect to Western Copper and Gold within the past 12 months. Disclosure 4: BMO Capital Markets or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Western Copper and Gold within the past 12 months. Disclosure 5: BMO Capital Markets or an affiliate received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services within the past 12 months from Western Copper and Gold. Disclosure 6A: Western Copper and Gold is a client (or was a client) of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Corp., BMO Capital Markets Limited or an affiliate within the past 12 months: A) Investment Banking Services Disclosure 6C: Western Copper and Gold is a client (or was a client) of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Corp., BMO Capital Markets Limited or an affiliate within the past 12 months: C) Non-Securities Related Services. Disclosure 16: A research analyst has extensively viewed the material operations of Western Copper and Gold. Disclosure 17: Western Copper and Gold has provided at its expense some or all of the itinerant travel for the research analyst related to facilitating a material site visit. Disclosure 18: A redacted draft of this report was previously shown to Western Copper and Gold (for fact checking purposes) and changes were made to the report before publication. Methodology and Risks to Target Price/Valuation for Western Copper and Gold (WRN-TSX) Methodology: Our target price is based on a 100% weighting assigned to a P/NAV multiple. Risks: Investment in mining companies carries risks, including commodity/currency, permitting, technical/operating, litigation/political, and environmental/social factors that have potential to impact share price performance.

Distribution of Ratings (January 22, 2025) Rating category BMO rating BMOCM US Universe* BMOCM US IB Clients** BMOCM US IB Clients*** BMOCM Universe**** BMOCM IB Clients***** StarMine Universe~ Buy Outperform 53.4 % 24.2 % 61.2 % 57.7 % 66.7 % 57.7% Hold Market Perform 43.9 % 17.8 % 36.9 % 40.7 % 32.5 % 37.5% Sell Underperform 2.7 % 15.4 % 1.9 % 1.6 % 0.8 % 4.8% * Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets Corp. equity research analysts. ** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking services as percentage within ratings category. *** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets Corp. has received compensation for Investment Banking services as percentage of Investment Banking clients. **** Reflects rating distribution of all companies covered by BMO Capital Markets equity research analysts. ***** Reflects rating distribution of all companies from which BMO Capital Markets has received compensation for Investment Banking services as percentage of Investment Banking clients. ~ As of April 1, 2019. Ratings Key (as of October 2016) We use the following ratings system definitions: OP = Outperform - Forecast to outperform the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis; Mkt = Market Perform - Forecast to perform roughly in line with the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis; Und = Underperform - Forecast to underperform the analyst’s coverage universe on a total return basis; (S) = Speculative investment; Spd = Suspended - Coverage and rating suspended until coverage is reinstated; NR = No Rated - No rating at this time; and R = Restricted - Dissemination of research is currently restricted. The total return potential, target price and the associated time horizon is 12 months unless otherwise stated in each report. BMO Capital Markets' seven Top 15 lists guide investors to our best ideas according to different objectives (CDN Large Cap, CDN Small Cap, US Large Cap, US Small Cap, Income, CDN Quant, and US Quant have replaced the Top Pick rating). Prior BMO Capital Markets Rating System (April 2013 - October 2016) http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/2013/rating_key_2013_to_2016.pdf (January 2010 - April 2013) http://researchglobal.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/2013/prior_rating_system.pdf Other Important Disclosures For Important Disclosures on the stocks discussed in this report, please go to https://research.bmo.com/public/disclosure_statements or write to Editorial Department, BMO Capital Markets, 151 West 42nd St, 33rd Floor, New York, NY 10036 or Editorial Department, BMO Capital Markets, 1 First Canadian Place, Toronto, Ontario, M5X 1H3. Dissemination of Research Dissemination of fundamental BMO Capital Markets Equity Research is available via our website https://research.bmo.com. Institutional clients may also simultaneously receive our fundamental research via email and/or via services such as Refinitiv, Bloomberg, FactSet, Visible Alpha, and S&P Capital IQ. BMO Capital Markets issues a variety of research products in addition to fundamental research. Institutional clients may request notification when additional research content is made available on our website. BMO Capital Markets may use proprietary models in the preparation of reports. Material information about such models may be obtained by contacting the research analyst directly. There is no planned frequency of model updates. The analyst(s) named in this report may discuss trading strategies that reference a catalyst or event that may have a near or long term impact on the market price of the equity securities discussed. In some cases, the impact may directionally counter the analyst’s published 12 month target price and rating. Any such trading or alternative strategies can be based on differing time horizons, methodologies, or otherwise and are distinct from and do not affect the analysts' fundamental equity rating in the report.

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Western Copper and Gold Corp. (WRN:TSX; WRN:NYSE.MKT) caught the attention of BMO Capital Markets given it initiated research coverage on the junior miner with an Outperform (Speculative) rating and a CA$3 per share (CA$3/share) target price, reported Analyst Rene Cartier in a Jan. 23 research note.

"Supported by strategic shareholders, Western Copper and Gold's well-funded balance sheet, location in a top-quality mining jurisdiction and proximity to other mining development  projects all underpin the progression of a Canadian copper-gold opportunity in an emerging mining district," Cartier wrote.

105% Return Implied

At the time of Cartier's report, Western Copper and Gold's share price was about CA$1.46. The company was trading at 0.2x BMO's diluted price:net asset value discounted at 10% versus developer and explorer peers within the BMO coverage universe at 0.5x.

"As further financing, permitting and development risks abate and as visibility on the potential of the project is enhanced, Western Copper and Gold has the potential to see its multiple further improve," the analyst wrote.

The return to BMO's $3/share target from WRN's CA$1.46/share price is 105%.

As of Sept. 30, 2024, the Canadian explorer-developer had 198.2 million (198.2M) shares and 1.5M warrants outstanding. Its market cap was CA$289 million (CA$289M).

Premier Mine in Yukon

Based in British Columbia, Western Copper and Gold is dedicated to advancing permitting and development of its 100%-owned Casino, "Canada's premier copper-gold mine in the Yukon Territory and one of the most economic greenfield copper-gold mining projects in the world," Cartier described.

Casino is about 300 kilometers (300 km) northwest of Whitehorse, Yukon's capital, and near a number of other development projects. The property is on Crown land and primarily within the Selkirk First Nation traditional territory. The Tr'ondek Hwechin traditional territory is to the north, and the proposed access road to Casino crosses into the Little Salmon Carmacks First Nation traditional territory to the south. The mining project also potentially affects the White River First Nation and the Kluane First Nation.

What to Know

Cartier presented the aspects of Western Copper and Gold that make it compelling.

Existing Reserves, Resources: Casino has established open-pit reserves and resources. The defined mill reserve is 1,217,000,000 (1.217 Mt) of 0.4% copper equivalent (Cu eq) whereas the heap-leach reserve is for 210 Mt of 0.28 grams per ton (0.28 g/t) gold equivalent.

"We see upside potential beyond the currently defined reserves, particularly with the large resource base and exploration targets in close proximity," Cartier wrote.

The 2022 feasibility study outlines Casino as a conventional, relatively large open-pit mine delivering production at low costs. Production is 120,000 tons per day over a 27-year life of mine, for average payable production of 163,000,000 pounds (163 Mlb) of copper, or 329 Mlb of Cu eq. Initial capex is US$3.6 billion (US$3.6B). Estimated cash costs are US$1.54 per pound (US$1.54/lb) for coproducts and negative US$0.80/lb for byproducts.

The projected strip ratio is only 0.43:1, "competitive by current standards," Cartier wrote. The low strip ratio and consequently the strip-adjusted grade bode well for project economics as does the higher-grade starter pit in the mine's first years.

Assuming a US$3.60/lb copper price and a US$1,700 per ounce gold price, the project returns an estimated after-tax net present value discounted at 8% of $2.334B, an internal rate of return of 18.1% and payback in 3.3 years. Initial capital is $3.617B and sustaining capital, $751M.

Developing Mining District: Mining is important in Yukon, according to Premier Ranj Pillai, and several miners, including Rio Tinto Plc (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTNTF:OTCMKTS), Newmont Corp. (NEM:NYSE; NGT:TSX; NEM:ASX), Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM:TSX; AEM:NYSE) and Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE), have invested there. Prospective mining development projects undergo rigorous and disciplined review. The existing community and impacted First Nations generally are supportive of Casino. Now, governmental support is progressing when it comes to developing needed road, power and port infrastructure.

For example, the federal and territorial governments committed to CA$130M in funding to build an access road to Casino, the first 5 km of which were completed in late 2023. As for the rest of the road, Western Copper and Gold has reached agreements with First Nations on "key aspects."

Regarding energy, there is no utility power available to serve Casino, so a power plant will need to be constructed. Casino will generate its own power using liquefied natural gas to fuel the generator drivers. Discussions are ongoing about possibly connecting the Yukon power grid to that of British Columbia, which would require 763 km of new transmission line. Casino would be an anchor utility user. In September 2024, Natural Resources Canada conditionally approved CA$40M in federal funding for prefeasibility study work.

The Port of Skagway, 560 km from Casino, is developing plans to expand its facilities to better serve the growing mining sector in Yukon and Alaska. Fresh water for Casino primarily will come from the Yukon River.

"We see advancement on these items as key support levers to unlocking the district," Cartier wrote.

BMO believes that Western Copper and Gold will not be able to develop Casino alone and therefore, it is a potential takeout or joint venture candidate. There are some prospective acquirers or partners nearby.

"The Casino project proximity advantages itself for the introduction of a strategic partner, project synergies or potential mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for those looking at taking advantage of an emerging district," wrote Cartier.

Insider, Strategic Ownership: Insiders and management own about 5% of Western Copper and Gold. Strategic shareholders, including Rio Tinto and Mitsubishi Materials Corp. (5711:TKO), have about 14%.

"These groups may act as anchors for future financings," Cartier wrote.

Long Permitting Process

Cartier discussed permitting of Casino, noting the process will span several years. The next step is for Western Copper and Gold to prepare and submit an environmental and socioeconomic effects (ESE) statement to the Yukon Environmental and Socioeconomic Assessment Board (YESAB). The ESE will form the basis for the company's assessment application for the YESAB panel review. The analyst pointed out that Casino is the first project in Yukon to go through this highest level of review. The mining company plans to submit the ESE in or around July 2025.

The YESAB process is expected to take about three years. Add to that several years to construct the mine, and BMO forecasts first production from Casino happening in about 2033.

Well-Funded for Near Term

The analyst pointed out that Western Copper and Gold has sufficient funds for its near-term plans, including permitting. This is thanks to the CA$74.9M in cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet as of the end of Q3/24.

Strong Leadership in Place

Cartier pointed out that the members of Western Copper and Gold's management team and board have experience with mining exploration and development projects. For instance, Sandeep Singh, the company's president and chief executive officer since February 2024, has more than 15 years of experience as an investment banker specializing in metals and mining. Most recently, he was Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd.'s president and CEO.

Potential Catalysts

Events that possibly could effect on Western Copper and Gold's share price positively, noted Cartier, include progress updates on road, power and port infrastructure plans, funding and projects; the awarding of governmental incentives, grants or tax credits; and progress with permitting of Casino. Other potential catalysts include announcements about financing, announcements from the company's strategic partners and the emergence of M&A or other value-creating opportunities.