Stillwater Critical Minerals Corp. (PGE:TSX.V; PGEZF:OTCQB; J0G:FSE) now has the first ever three-dimensional (3D) geologic model of its flagship Stillwater West polymetallic project in Montana, and it shows clear expansion potential, reported Couloir Capital analysts in an Oct. 17 research note.
"This model effectively links the eastern and western extremities of a large, world-class area and serves as a guide for expanding the company's resource base," the analysts wrote.
Stillwater West, containing nine essential metals, is a rare critical minerals project in the U.S., as it offers grade and scale in a producing district.
97% return potential
Couloir Capital recently lowered its fair value price on Stillwater to CA$0.23 per share from CA$0.28 after accounting for its valuation models anew, analysts wrote. In comparison, the stock's share price is about CA$0.12 currently.
The difference between these two prices implies a return for investors of 92%. The British Columbia-based mineral explorer remains a Buy.
Potential for resource expansion shown
Stillwater Critical Minerals had a property-wide airborne electromagnetic geophysical survey done at its flagship project as part its 2024 field activities there. Glencore International Plc (GLNCY:OTCMKTS; GLEN:LSE), with a 15.4% interest in the company and significant survey experience, helped design it. The purpose was twofold: to refine drill targets throughout the 12 kilometer (12 km) resource area and help prioritize other, untested conductive targets throughout the wider 61 square kilometer project area. Stillwater's ultimate goal is to expand the mineral resource estimate prepared in 2023.
The new survey covered 1,170 km, expanding upon surveys conducted in the early 2000s. It delivered the maiden 3D geologic model of the lower, 9.5 km-long Stillwater Igneous Complex, and showed continuity of mineralization throughout its length. The survey also, throughout the project, demonstrated strong correlations between the Peridotite zone and the geophysical and geochemical soil anomalies, another indicator of expansion potential, evident in all directions, between deposits, downdip and along strike.
Results of the final batch of drill results (three holes) from 2023 also showed resource expansion potential, noted Couloir. Holes CM2023-01, CM2023-02 and CM2023-03 intersected magmatic nickel and copper sulphide mineralization containing significant platinum group elements (PGE) in various mineralization styles. This confirmed similarities to the Bushveld Igneous Complex.
"We believe Stillwater West is well positioned to rapidly advance as a potential large-scale, low-carbon source of nickel, copper, cobalt, palladium, platinum and rhodium," Couloir Capital analysts wrote.
Two strategic partnerships
They reported that Stillwater signed a memorandum of understanding with U.S. Strategic Metals, a Missouri, U.S.-based processor of critical minerals and supplier of supply battery-grade metals for domestic use. This strategic partnership includes a potential offtake agreement and is part of Stillwater's ongoing efforts to collaborate with companies and U.S. government agencies on establishing domestic, critical metals supply chains.
In a partnership with the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the company will investigate the possibility of producing geologic hydrogen at Stillwater West. For this, the U.S. Department of Energy granted Stillwater US$2 million (US$2M) in funds via the Advanced Research Projects Agency program.
"These endeavors position Stillwater as a leading U.S. company in meeting the growing demand for critical minerals and supporting the green energy transition," Couloir analysts wrote.
Earn-in deal work progressing
Stillwater has an agreement in place with Heritage Mining for Heritage to earn 51% initially then another 39% of the Drayton-Black Lake gold-silver-copper project in Ontario, Canada. According to Couloir analysts, Heritage is making good progress on its commitment.
Heritage spent the requisite yearly CA$500,000 on exploration in 2022 and 2023. Also, it issued 11.25 million (11.25M) Heritage shares and 6 million warrants and paid nearly CA$170,000 in cash to Stillwater. Heritage is expected to issue another 1.1M shares in November 2024 and carry out CA$2.5M worth of exploration work.
"We think this could change and impact the overall valuation of PGE, if Heritage Mining is able to advance the project toward a mineral resource estimate," commented the analysts.
Need to raise capital
Couloir Capital pointed out that Stillwater will need to raise capital in the near future. At the end of Q1 of fiscal year 2025, the company had CA$2.47M in cash, CA$4.09M in working capital and no long-term debt, not enough to get it through the next 12 months.
What to watch for
Several near-term events could catalyze Stillwater's stock, noted Couloir analysts. One is news about progress made in advancing Stillwater West, specifically in terms of drill programs, drill results and expansion of the existing resource. Updates on the Drayton-Black Lake project and Stillwater's option agreement with Heritage Mining could boost the stock. News about significant changes to Stillwater's capital structure, like a financing, also could impact the share price.
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