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Junior Gold Producer Performs As Expected In Q1/23
Research Report

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This Canadian company operating in Brazil offers investors attractive return potential and is a Buy, noted a Research Capital Corp. report.

Jaguar Mining Inc. (JAG:TSX) posted a Q1/23 that met expectations, reported Research Capital Corp. analyst Stuart McDougall in a May 11 research note.

"We have updated our model for the results and continue to recommend purchase as a Buy," McDougall wrote.

122% Possible Return

The analyst pointed out that this Canadian gold miner offers investors significant potential return, of 122%. This is reflected in the difference between Jaguar's current share price, CA$2.37, and Research Capital's target price on it, CA$5.25 per share.

Highlights of Results

McDougall summarized Jaguar Mining's Q1/23 results.

During the quarter, this company with two underground mines in Brazil's Iron Quadrangle sold 19,008 ounces of gold.

Unadjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$0.03, Research Capital's exact forecast.

Cash flow per share (CFPS), however, was lower than expected, due primarily, McDougall noted, to higher cash taxes. CFPS was US$0.14; Research Capital estimated it would be US$0.16.

No Cost Surprises

As for costs, average total cash costs were on par, at US$1,084 per ounce (US$1,084/oz). This compared to Research Capital's projection of US$1,086/oz.

Jaguar Mining's Q1/23 all-in sustaining cost (AISC) came to US$1,575/oz, slightly above Research Capital's US$1,541/oz expectation.

"Stock-based compensation essentially account[ed] for the difference," McDougall explained.

Reported sustaining capex was US$7.2 million (US$7.2M), generally in line with Research Capital's US$6.9M estimate.

Balance Sheet Status

At Q1/23's end, Jaguar Mining had US$25.8M of cash, US$20.8M of working capital and US$7.1M of debt.

"We still do not foresee any requirements for external financing, barring any unforeseeable development," McDougall wrote.

For the Full Year

Jaguar Mining reiterated its guidance for full-year 2023 (FY23), noted McDougall. It expects to produce a total of 84,000–88,000 ounces of gold at an AISC of US$1,275–1,375/oz.

Compared to guidance, Research Capital estimates Jaguar's production for FY23 will wind up being in the lower end and AISC will be higher than the provided range, more like around US$1,415/oz.

"We expect the next three quarters to each to contribute about 22,000 oz at a consolidated total cash cost of about US$970/oz and an AISC of about US$1,365/oz," McDougall wrote.

Research Capital maintained its FY23 EPS and CFPS estimates for Jaguar (based on a flat gold price of US$1,850/oz) of US$0.24 and US$0.78, respectively.

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Important Disclosures:

  1. Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor/employee. 
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Disclosures for Research Capital Corp., Jaguar Mining Inc., May 11, 2023

Analyst Certification I, Stuart McDougall, certify the views expressed in this report were formed by my review of relevant company data and industry investigation, and accurately reflect my opinion about the investment merits of the securities mentioned in the report. I also certify that my compensation is not related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report. Research Capital Corporation publishes research and investment recommendations for the use of its clients. Information regarding our categories of recommendations, quarterly summaries of the percentage of our recommendations which fall into each category and our policies regarding the release of our research reports is available at or may be requested by contacting the analyst. Each analyst of Research Capital Corporation whose name appears in this report hereby certifies that (i) the recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views and (ii) no part of the research analyst’s compensation was or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific conclusions or recommendations expressed in this research report.

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RC USA INC. Information about Research Capital Corporation’s Rating System, the distribution of our research to clients and the percentage of recommendations which are in each of our rating categories is available on our website at The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed, nor in providing it does Research Capital Corporation assume any responsibility or liability. Research Capital Corporation, its directors, officers and other employees may, from time to time, have positions in the securities mentioned herein. Contents of this report cannot be reproduced in whole or in part without the express permission of Research Capital Corporation. US Institutional Clients – Research Capital USA Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Research Capital Corporation, accepts responsibility for the contents of this report subject to the terms and limitations set out above. US firms or institutions receiving this report should effect transactions in securities discussed in the report through Research Capital USA Inc., a Broker – Dealer registered with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA).

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