In an Oct. 9 research note, Andrew Kaip highlighted Royal Gold Inc.'s (RGLD:NASDAQ; RGL:TSX) reported sales from its streaming agreements. Gold sales and silver and copper deliveries during Q1 FY19 were "higher than estimated."
Gold stream deliveries were 46,000 ounces (46 Koz) versus BMO's estimated 43.5 Koz, and gold inventory dropped to 20 Koz from 22 Koz. Silver and copper stream deliveries were 544 Koz and 0.7 thousand tons (0.7 Kt), respectively, compared to BMO's expectations of about 456 Koz silver and 0.5 Kt copper.
During the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2018, the company's streaming revenue is estimated at $69.5 million, which would exceed BMO's $62.7 million forecast. At the same time, costs were down, coming in at an estimated $16.4 million versus BMO's anticipated $19.8 million. "We expect a positive revision to our estimates," Kaip indicated.
As for average metals prices, they were lower in Q1/19, quarter over quarter. Gold was $1,221 per ounce ($1,221/oz) versus $1,314/oz one quarter earlier. Silver was $15.25/oz compared to $16.55/oz. Copper was $5,800 per ton, down from $6,847 per ton.
Cost of sales during the quarter were $288/oz of gold equivalent, down from $349/oz in Q4/18.
Royal Gold is scheduled to release its Q1/19 results after the market close on Oct. 31, with a conference call to follow at noon Eastern Standard Time on Nov. 1.
BMO has an Outperform rating and a $98 per share target price on Royal Gold, whose stock is trading currently at ~$77.93 per share.[NLINSERT]
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Disclosures from BMO Capital Markets, Royal Gold, Oct. 9, 2018
I, Andrew Kaip, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Analysts who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO Capital Markets and their affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. Compensation for research is based on effectiveness in generating new ideas and in communication of ideas to clients, performance of recommendations, accuracy of earnings estimates, and service to clients.
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Company Specific Disclosures
Disclosure 5: BMO Capital Markets or an affiliate received compensation for products or services other than investment banking services within the past 12 months from Royal Gold.
Disclosure 6C: Royal Gold is a client (or was a client) of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Corp., BMO Capital Markets Limited or an affiliate within the past 12 months: C) Non-Securities Related Services.
Disclosure 9B: BMO Capital Markets makes a market in Royal Gold in United States.
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