In a June 13 research note, Garett Ursu, an analyst with Cormark Securities, reported that Blackbird Energy Inc. (BBI:TSX.V) released the recent findings of an independent evaluation of some of its Montney resources in Alberta. Consequently, Cormark increased its per-share target price on the company to CA$1 from CA$0.90.
The report, prepared by McDaniel & Associates, indicated that Blackbird's best estimate, or 2C, contingent resources increased 149% from the company's 2017 resource evaluation. They now are 112.2 million barrels of oil equivalent (112.2 MMboe), having grown from 45 MMboe. Forty-three percent of the newly quantified resources are liquids.
The NPV-10 of these contingent resources of Blackbird is $587.3 million ($587.3M), or $0.78 per share, Ursu noted, when accounting for the commodity price and the 80% chance of development cited by McDaniel & Associates. This valuation is 35% higher than the one in the 2017 resource estimate, which was $436.5M. "This is net of future development capital (FDC) of ~$1,833 MM (~$668 MM discounted at 10%)," the report stated.
Ursu highlighted that the 2C resources addressed in the current report are located on only two of Blackbird's four prospective zones in the Montney Formation. This equates to 33.4 of its 113.5 net sections, or 29%, of its land there.
Blackbird previously, in 2017, reported Proven and Probable, or 2P, reserves with an NPV-10 of $395M, or $0.53 per share. Those were on 16.5 sections on land also in those same two zones as the 2C resources.
All told, of Blackbird's total 113.5 sections of land, resources/reserves have been calculated on 49.9 of them, which equals about 44% of the entire package, wrote Ursu. Together, the 2P reserves and 2C resources have an NPV-10 of about $982M, or $1.31 per share.
Were the energy company to realize additional resources on the rest of its Montney land, "we estimate the potential value of Blackbird's asset base to possibly reach ~$2.2 billion (~$2.98/share). . .representing significant upside currently unattributed to the stock," Ursu purported.
Ursu reiterated Cormark's Buy rating on Blackbird, whose stock is currently trading at around CA$0.38 per share. He added, "Blackbird remains one of our favorite small-cap Montney names, and we continue to encourage investors to accumulate the stock this summer."
Read what other experts are saying about:
Want to read more Energy Report articles like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you'll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent articles and interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Streetwise Interviews page.
1) Doresa Banning compiled this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.
2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Blackbird Energy. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with Blackbird Energy. Please click here for more information.
3) Comments and opinions expressed are those of the specific experts and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The information provided above is for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the interview or the decision to write an article, until one week after the publication of the interview or article. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Blackbird Energy, a company mentioned in this article.
Disclosures from Cormark Securities, Blackbird Energy, Morning Meeting Notes, June 13, 2018
Analyst Certification: We, Garett Ursu and Michael Mueller, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject company(ies) and its (their) securities. We also certify that we have not been, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendation(s) in this report.
Disclosure Statements and Dissemination Policies: A full list of our disclosure statements as well as our research dissemination policies and procedures can be found on our website.