Analysts Increase Target Prices on Cobalt Pure-Play
Source: Streetwise Reports (1/6/18)
With electric vehicle demand booming, cobalt is a hot commodity, rising about 130% in 2017. This TSX.V-listed company offers one of the few ways to gain pure-play exposure.
Cobalt 27 Capital Corp. (KBLT:TSX.V; CBLLF:OTC; 27O:FSE) is one of the few avenues for pure-play investment exposure to cobalt, as the company holds an inventory of physical cobalt as well as streaming agreements. The company recently closed a bought-deal offering, selling 8.1 million common shares at CA$10.50 each for gross proceeds of approximately CA$85 million. The exercise of an overallotment option has brought the total gross proceeds to CA$97.8 million.
The company is using those funds to purchase 822 metric tonnes of physical cobalt at an average price of US$36.28 per pound. These purchases bring Cobalt 27's total inventory to about 2,982 metric tonnes of cobalt.
Cobalt, an essential battery ingredient, has had a stellar year, rising about 130% in 2017, and demand is expected to continue to grow.
Cormark Securities analyst MacMurray Whale gave the base case for cobalt in a Dec. 19 initiation report on Cobalt 27: "Cobalt demand is booming from rising EV adoption and need for cobalt in the current battery formulations. Production is constrained: 99% of cobalt is produced as a co-product, two-thirds comes from the politically turbulent DRC and 84% is processed in China. We expect total demand will rise to more than 300,000 t by 2025, driving prices higher."
He also noted that gaining exposure to cobalt is not easy, as "few existing cobalt-producing mines are expanding, and the current cobalt-focused development companies are very early stage, having sizable exposure to other coproducts and arsenic. For this reason, we believe investors should gain exposure to the commodity itself. Cobalt 27 Capital Corp. provides this opportunity with a balanced set of investment risks."
Cormark has a Buy recommendation and CA$13.00 target price on Cobalt 27, noting, "as a holder of almost 3,000 t of physical cobalt metal, KBLT brings immediate exposure to high cobalt prices and expectations for further price increases owing to rising demand from the battery space. Further upside exists through its ownership of net smelter returns."
Analyst Michael Doumet of Scotiabank also discussed cobalt demand in a Dec. 19 report, stating, "we believe higher cobalt prices will be required to incentivize additional mine startups to help feed longer-term demand growth. According to CRU, electric vehicle production will require approximately 100% and 300% of current cobalt production to power batteries in 2025 and 2030, respectively (other uses account for 95%)."
"As automakers look to secure long-term supplies of cobalt, producers (including Glencore) remain reluctant to sign fixed-price agreements. As such, we continue to believe price risk remains to the upside as current 'perfect storm' fundamentals could push prices to levels comparable to its previous peak (~US$50/lb)," Doumet added.
Doumet is bullish on Cobalt 27, writing, "we are increasing our one-year target price to CA$13.25/share [from CA$12.50/share]. Still early days in the KBLT story, we see continued upside in the shares from cobalt price appreciation and value accretive transactions. KBLT is in a unique position as it looks to transform itself from a physical holding company into a hybrid physical/streaming company—and create shareholder value in the process."
That optimism was shared by other analysts. Colin Healey of Haywood Securities wrote on Dec. 19 that the capital raise and cobalt purchase "puts KBLT in a strategically attractive position in the cobalt market and sets the stage for a streaming transaction."
"Management's rationale for the deal was to bolster its balance sheet and liquidity profile prior to enacting on a streaming deal in 2018. Post-deal, we expect the Company to have ~$30M in liquidity and no debt," Healey noted.
The Haywood analyst also stated that cobalt market dynamics "continue to support higher spot prices. . .as EV-based demand continues to rise in the face of supply risk and greater supply-chain scrutiny from end users."
Haywood has increased its target price for Cobalt 27 to $CA14.00 from CA$11.50.
Analyst Jonathan Guy of Numis highlighted that the cobalt price continues to rise "supported by 45% YoY growth in EV registrations in China with the Chinese also now changing the regulations around battery capacity that should favor the battery types that contain cobalt. An average electric vehicle contains between 4kg and 14kg of cobalt with battery demand accounting for approximately 50% of overall demand. With EV take up growing at an exponential rate and only very limited new cobalt supply entering the market we expect the market to tighten further driving prices upward."
Guy also stated that "we expect the KBLT share price to be driven upward by a combination of higher metal prices and the signing of cobalt streams with nickel and copper producers that produce the metal as a by-product."
Guy noted that Numis retains "a Buy recommendation but increase[s] our target price to C$15 (from C$11) driven by our expectation of higher cobalt prices."
GMP Securities raised its target price on Cobalt 27 to CA$13.30 from CA$12.50 on Jan. 3. Analyst Anoop Prihar stated that Cobalt 27's "additional physical cobalt inventory provides a natural hedge against rising long-term cobalt prices."
Prihar also noted that in late 2017, a legal dispute between Gecamines, the DRC's state-owned miner, and Groupe de Terill Lubumbashi has shut down the Big Hill tailings project, taking 4% of global cobalt supply offline. "GTL is now pursuing legal action against Gecamines and the case is scheduled to be contested in court in 2020. As such, GTL's Big Hill furnace could remain shut down until the legal issue is resolved," Prihar stated.
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Additional disclosures about the sources cited in this article
Disclosures from Cormark Securities, Cobalt 27 Capital Corp., Dec. 19, 2017
Analyst Certification: I, MacMurray D. Whale, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company(ies) and its (their) securities. I also certify that I have not been, and will not be receiving direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendation(s) in this report.
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Disclosures from Scotiabank, Cobalt 27 Capital Corp., Dec. 19, 2017, Intraday Flash
I, Michael Doumet, certify that (1) the views expressed in this report in connection with securities or issuers that I analyze accurately reflect my personal views and (2) no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by me in this report. This research report was prepared by employees of Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates who have the title of Analyst.
The compensation of the research analyst who prepared this report is based on several factors, including but not limited to, the overall profitability of Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets, and the revenues generated from its various departments, including investment banking, trading fees and other types of transactions. Furthermore, the research analyst’s compensation is charged as an expense to various Scotiabank, Global Banking and Markets departments, including investment banking. Research Analysts may not receive compensation from the companies they cover.
Important Disclosures on Cobalt 27 Capital Corp.:
Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates has managed or co-managed a public offering in the past 12 months.
Scotia Capital (USA) Inc. or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services in the past 12 months.
Within the last 12 months, Scotia Capital Inc. and/or its affiliates have undertaken an underwriting liability with respect to equity or debt securities of, or have provided advice for a fee with respect to, this issuer.
Disclosures from Haywood Securities, Cobalt 27 Capital Corp., Dec. 19, 2017, Research Report
Haywood Securities, or certain of its affiliated companies, may from time to time receive a portion of commissions or other fees derived from the trading or financings conducted by other affiliated companies in the covered security. Haywood analysts are salaried employees who may receive a performance bonus that may be derived, in part, from corporate finance income.
Haywood Securities, Inc., and Haywood Securities (USA) Inc. do have officers in common however, none of those common officers affect or control the ratings given a specific issuer or which issuer will be the subject of Research coverage. In addition, the firm does maintain and enforce written policies and procedures reasonably designed to prevent influence on the activities of affiliated analysts.
Analyst Certification: I, Colin Healey, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report (which includes the rating assigned to the issuer’s shares as well as the analytical substance and tone of the report) accurately reflect my/our personal views about the subject securities and the issuer. No part of my/our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations.
Important Disclosures
Of the companies included in the report the following Important Disclosures apply:
▪ As of the end of the month immediately preceding this publication either Haywood Securities, Inc., its officers or directors beneficially owned 1% or more of Cobalt 27 Capital Corp. (KBLT-V). ▪ Haywood Securities, Inc. has reviewed lead projects of Cobalt 27 Capital Corp. (KBLT-V) and a portion of the expenses for this travel may have been reimbursed by the issuer. ▪ Haywood Securities Inc. or one of its subsidiaries has managed or co-managed or participated as selling group in a public offering of securities for Cobalt 27 Capital Corp. (KBLT-V) in the past 12 months.
Other material conflict of interest of the research analyst of which the research analyst or Haywood Securities Inc. knows or has reason to know at the time of publication or at the time of public appearance: n/a.
Disclosures from Numis, Cobalt 27 Capital Corp., Dec. 28, 2017, Company Update
The research analyst who prepared this research report was Jonathan Guy. The research analysts who prepared this investment recommendation receives compensation based upon various factors (such as the general perception of the analyst's ability and commitment to their analytical work) and upon the overall revenues including the investment banking revenues and trading revenues of Numis and/or one or more of its affiliates.
Analyst Certification: The analysts hereby certify that all of the views expressed herein accurately reflect the their personal views about any and all of the subject securities and/or issuers at the date of original publication of this document.
The research analysts who prepared this research report also certify that no part of their compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by them in the research report.
Numis, Numis Inc. and/or their affiliates, directors, officers, and employees may have or have had interests, or long or short positions, and may at any time make purchases or sales as a principal or agent of the subject companies mentioned or referred to in this report.
Numis or one or more of its associates or a director or an employee of Numis or of an associate may from time to time have a position, or may have undertaken or may undertake an own-account transaction, in a security referred to in this document or in a related security. Such a position or such a transaction may relate to the market making activities of Numis or to other activities of Numis.
Numis or one or more of its associates may from time to time have a broking, advisory or other relationship with a company which is the subject of or referred to in this investment recommendation, including acting as that company’s official or sponsoring broker and providing corporate finance or other financial services. It is the policy of Numis to seek to act as corporate adviser or broker to many of the companies which are covered by the Research Department. Accordingly companies covered in any investment recommendation may be the subject of marketing initiatives by the Corporate Finance Department.
Numis acts as a market maker (as defined in point (7) of Article 4(1) of Directive 2015/65/EU) in the subject company of this report. Additionally, at any time Numis may have a long or short position in the companies mentioned in this investment recommendation, and may have received customer orders to buy or sell instruments in the companies mentioned in this investment recommendation. If Numis holds a long position of >0.5% or a short position of <-0.5% in the subject company of an investment recommendation, this is separately disclosed.
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Unless otherwise clearly specified in this document, the author(s) of this document does not own a long or short position in the issuer, whether received or purchased before or subsequent to a public offering of such shares.
Disclosures from GMP Securities, Cobalt 27 Capital Corp., Jan. 3, 2018
GMP and/or affiliated companies or persons may as principal or agent, buy and sell securities mentioned herein, including options, futures or other derivative instruments thereon.
Company-Specific Disclosures: GMP has, within the previous 12 months, provided paid investment banking services or acted as underwriter to the issuer.
Each research analyst and associate research analyst who authored this document and whose name appears herein certifies that: (1)the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed herein that are within their coverage universe; and (2) no part of their compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed herein.
GMP Analysts are compensated competitively based on several criteria. The Analyst compensation pool is comprised of several revenue sources, including secondary trading commissions, new issue commissions, investment banking fees, and directed payments from institutional clients. GMP prohibits any director, officer or employee of GMP from holding any office in publicly traded companies or any office in non-affiliated private companies in the financial services industry.
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