Silver Has a Bullish Bent


"Silver is poised to take off this week. . ."

Silver is poised to take off this week on technical indicators and fading concerns over the global economic recovery as the metal is more closely tied to industrial activities than gold.

A string of data releases are expected from the G-7 and Asian countries this week, with the U.S. expected to show mixed negative economic data in the form of an increasing budget deficit, lower industrial production, and mounting jobless claims.

COMEX silver futures for December delivery traded rangebound last week, easing close to the opening level. Support is withholding an upside view at $19.55 levels. As long as silver holds above this breakout level it's expected to show a bullish trend for the week. The formation of an "ascending triangle" pattern indicates a bullish trend. In addition, the moving average convergence divergence, or MACD, is treading above the "0" median line, implying continuation of the upside potential.

Silver fell last week, tracking gold and base metals. LME base metals trimmed more than 1%. The gold:silver ratio rose marginally to 62.87 from 62.76 as silver prices stalled more than gold. Silver's investment demand was bullish as the world's largest silver exchange traded fund, iShares Silver Trust (SLV), accumulated 30.44 tons last week, taking its total holdings to 9,307.17 tons.

Silver for spot delivery on the COMEX closed at $19.8/oz., while December futures ended at $19.80/oz., indicating backwardation in silver prices. Similarly, COMEX gold for spot delivery closed at $1,246.30/oz., while December futures ended at $1,245/oz., signaling that gold prices are in backwardation as well.

The calendar spread between silver Sep'10 and Dec'10 futures contracts closed at negative 0.043, revealing that the far-month contracts closed higher than the near-month contracts. Meanwhile, the calendar spread between gold Oct'10 and Dec'10 contracts closed at negative 1.50.

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