Gold: Heads You Win, Tails You Win


"We hear people argue that gold will rise no matter what happens!"

If someone came up to you and said they were going to flip a coin and; if heads came up, you win and, if tails came up, they lose, you'd probably tell the person to try conning someone else and walk away. In terms of gold, though, we are increasingly beginning to hear people argue that gold will rise no matter what happens!

Today, we read one article that quoted an analyst as saying: "Either a swift economic recovery or further dismal economic performance should bring new buyers into the market."

We realize there are certainly some valid arguments for buying gold, but a comment like this is not one of them. Now, we wouldn't necessarily go as far as to say that gold is in a bubble. After all, unlike a lot of recent asset bubbles where prices skyrocketed even as supply expanded, the supply of gold is relatively constrained. That being said, arguments presented as a win-win regardless of the outcome are usually found closer to the peak of a move than the beginning.

Gold Futures: Last Six Months

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