USD to Fade as Gold Heads Higher
Source: Sam Kirtley, SK Options Trading (8/16/10)
"Last week gold delivered the 50 day moving average signal, twice."
Whilst we still need to see a close above $1,220 to confirm this move, we are now very confident that a major rally in gold prices will begin in earnest in the next couple of weeks.
Last week, we wrote that we were expecting a rebound in the U.S. dollar from oversold conditions. Sure enough, the rebound in the USD did eventuate, with the index rising from 80 to almost 83 in a matter of days.
However, we had thought that this rebound in the US dollar would cause gold prices to fall slightly, but this did not happen, instead we saw gold prices increasing with the USD.
This recent positive correlation between the USD and gold has caught our attention, since over the past few years the two have tended to have been negatively correlated, with gold moving inversely to the USD with some leverage factor.
By simply putting together some charts of gold versus the USD over the course of this gold bull market. It becomes clear that, though the relationship is largely inverse, there are periods where the two move together.
We do not claim to be specialists in the field of market cycles, however it appears to us that after roughly four years of moving inversely, gold and the USD then began to move together for roughly seven months, before moving inversely again for another four years. They have now been moving together to approximately eight months, so if the pattern described above were to continue then one would expect the US dollar and gold to begin moving inversely to each other very soon, and for this negative relationship to continue for four or so years to come.
Since we are bearish on the USD and bullish on gold over the next few years, this general cyclical analysis fits with our current outlook.
In conclusion, although the inverse relationship between gold and the USD does not always hold, this has not affected our gold price forecasts. We think gold will make a new all time high before the end of the year, and probably challenge $1,300.
In fact, we are so confident if you sign up to a 12 month OptionTrader subscription before September 1, 2010, we will refund your $179 fee if gold prices do not make a new all time high in 2010! Visit www.skoptionstrading.com to sign up now.