What Just Happened?
Source: David Banister, Market Trend Forecast (8/12/10)
"The market moves in reliable 'herding patterns.'"
We were calling for a top around 1130 on the SP500 for the past few weeks as a "Bearish Wedge" pattern was in the process of completing. I felt this was the final stage in a multi-week 3-3-5 Elliott Pattern that would terminate with a sudden drop out of the wedge. These tend to come out of left field, and at major pivots bulls and bears are normally both caught off guard or flatfooted at best.
However, the market does not move in random fashion as many people think. As we espouse here at TMTF, the market moves in reliable "herding patterns" exhibited by the participants in the market itself. People tend to get overly optimistic at tops and overly pessimistic at bottoms. These patterns are oft identified at TMTF as Fibonacci retracements or pivots. In addition, we overlay Elliott Wave patterns whether corrective or impulsive to help determine probabilities and the next likely outcome.
More often than not, we are ahead of our peers in our Elliott Wave forecasts and our counts tend to be more accurate than most. This is because I use a big picture view, and I don't rely entirely on just the wave pattern itself. We add a few ingredients to our market forecasting soup and this allows us to be consistently ahead of the crowd with our predictions. Are we bragging a little bit? You bet we are, and the reason we launched TMTF was to help educate investors on the value of Elliott Wave theory and thinking outside the box when looking at the markets. It's time to turn off CNBC and tune out the noise, and at TMTF we try to tune out all the noise, turn down the volume and provide some straightforward probabilities and forecasts for our readers.
Perhaps you should join us, and if you're not ready, please review our free occasional reports by going to www.MarketTrendForecast.com and signing up today!