Silver Tracks Gold


"RSI momentum indicator confirms the bullish trend in silver."

Silver tracked losses in gold and fell more than 0.5% to $18.00/oz. for the week ended July 30, 2010. Silver failed to take cues from base metals, which rose more than 4.5% on LME. U.S. silver futures for September delivery plunged as much as 4% to $17.33/oz. during the week and finally settled at $18/oz. MCX silver futures for September delivery showed a movement of nearly Rs. 1200 during the week and traded between Rs. 28,026–Rs. 29,225/kg. Prices finally settled 1.74% lower at Rs. 28,636/kg. Appreciating rupee supplemented this fall. Indian rupee 1.14% to 46.4075 against the U.S. dollar.

CFTC reports suggest a massive buildup in speculators' short positions for the second straight week, suggesting a possibility of short covering in the near future. Speculators increased their short positions by more than 30% for the week ended on July 27, 2010. There was a decline of more than 4% in net long positions. Commercial holders (Hedgers) increased their long positions by 3% and reduced short positions marginally. Total long and short positions were marginally changed.

Technical Analysis—Silver

Comex Silver has taken a support at $17.31 this week and ended flat above $18. key psychological mark. Comex silver is trading in the range for last three–four weeks and is unable to breach and give closing below the support level of the weeks low. RSI momentum indicator is at 0.49 indicating confirming the bullish trend in silver. If we closely watch the chart silver is taking support of 45 weekly EMA. We expect silver prices to trade higher for the coming week and recommend buying.

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