IEA Raises 2015 World Oil Forecast


"Rising oil supplies will offset higher demand over next five years."

Rising oil supplies will mostly offset higher demand over the next five years, the IEA said in its latest medium-term oil and gas market report.

"For the next few years, the oil market is marked by more comfortable spare capacity than envisaged last year and the duration of the current gas glut is set to last beyond 2013, at least in some regions. Yet, we shouldn't be complacent," the IEA said.

Potential delays to new deepwater oil projects following BP's oil spill in the Gulf may tighten supplies, said the agency.

"Should the impact of those measures be widespread delays to deepwater projects, anything between 100,000 and 800,000 bpd of new 2015 oil supply currently included in our outlook might be deferred."

The agency raised its oil demand growth outlook to an average 1.4%, or 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), for every year to 2015 on the back of robust demand from emerging markets, taking the total volume to 91.9 million bpd in 2015.

The previous forecast in its medium-term outlook in June last year was an average growth by an average 540,000 bpd/year in 20082014.

The outlook is based on the assumption of IEA's average oil import price, which would reach around $85 a barrel in the latter years of 20092015.

Global oil supply will rise to 96.5 million bpd by 2015, mainly led by production outside OPEC.

Non-OPEC oil supply will increase to 52.5 million bpd by 2015 from 51.5 million bpd last year, the IEA said.

Despite the upward revision for the medium-term global outlook, the IEA figures showed a weak economy could curtail demand from the developed countries more quickly than it predicted in its previous outlook last year. The near-term global demand increase is also likely to be limited.

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