Long-Term Outlook for Uranium

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". . .electricity consumption will nearly double by 2030."

Global population growth in combination with industrial development will lead to a near doubling of electricity consumption by 2030. Nuclear energy is on the policy agendas of many countries, with projections for new build projects similar to or exceeding those of nuclear power's early years. Uxc estimates that demand will outstrip all production (secondary and new production included) in 2014; but, if the high end of demand is reached, demand will continue to outpace production at an increasing pace through 2020.

Increased awareness of global climate change has led decision makers, media and the public to be critical of fossil fuels with the focus on reduction and replacement by low-emission sources of energy.

There are currently 439 nuclear units operating in 30 countries and they supply about 15% of the world’s electricity. Over the next 10 years, 108 new reactors are anticipated with the majority of the growth in Asia. Over the same time period, 19 reactors are expected to be shutdown, resulting in a net increase of 89 reactors from current levels. Indian reactor demand for uranium estimated at about 3 million pounds last year will rise to as much as 10 million pounds in 15 years. Some analysts are forecasting China will increase nuclear power capacity by 9 times current values, targeting 80 GWe by 2020.

In addition to this growth, there will be a need to renew the current generating facilities in the Canada, the U.S. and EU over the same period. Licensing of plant lifetime extensions and the economic attractiveness of continued operation of older reactors are critical factors in the medium-term uranium market. However, with electricity demand expected to increase significantly at a rapid rate, there is plenty of scope for investment growth in uranium investing for a green-conscious world.

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