Update on Status of the SP500 Index and Markets


"In the last many weeks, the market corrected 31% of the 13-month rally."

Back in Mid-April, I penned a forecast calling for a top in the markets and suggesting a drop from 1220 or so on the SP 500 index down to 1130 as the first leg down. That was a minimum downside and based on the rally off the February 5th lows to the April highs. In the last many weeks, the market actually ended up correcting 31% of the 13-month rally from March 2009 to April 2010. This type of corrective action had the exact same patterns as the prior two corrections since the Bull began in 2009.

On May 25th in pre-market, I wrote a forecast with a video predicting a bottom at 1030-1040 ranges, and we did in fact bottom that day. The market has since traced out a rally followed by a retest in early June, and since then another rally to new highs since May 25th. I expect this type of chopping action to continue until Mid-September as I predicted back in April. The preceding 13-month bull leg rally must be corrected both in sentiment and price over several months of time. The price objective may have already been met on May 25th and again with the June re-test, but the amount of time for a correction is not nearly enough. Expect continuing choppy action for the next three months, after which I believe the market will firm up and we could run to new highs by the end of the year.

The market should pullback a bit early this week, and if it holds the 109.50 SPY ETF area, it should then continue the rally. You may view a three-minute video of the forecast with advisories by clicking the link below to our ATP website free preview section. Click to review Video Forecast of SP 500.

Dave Banister
Chief Investment Strategist

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