Copper May Rise on Speculation
Source: Bloomberg, Anna Stablum (6/10/10)
Ten of 18 said the metal will gain next week.
Ten of 18 analysts, investors and traders surveyed by Bloomberg, or 56 percent, said the metal will gain next week. The rest predicted lower prices. Copper for delivery in three months was up 1.4 percent for this week at $6,370 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange at 2:30 p.m. yesterday.
Prices slid in seven of the past eight weeks before this week on concern about steps by China to restrain its economy and the potential spread in the euro zone of Greece's fiscal crisis. Copper's 14-day relative strength index this week fell below 30, a signal to investors and analysts who study technical charts that prices may be set to increase.
A "rebound on bargain-hunting, which could be quite aggressive," is probable, William Adams, an analyst at Basemetals.com in London, said by e-mail. Still, any gains were "likely to be fairly short-lived and followed by further weakness over summer" in the Northern Hemisphere, he said.
The RSI gauges the strength of selling or buying of a commodity or security.
The red bars on the attached chart are derived by subtracting bearish forecasts from bullish estimates, with readings below zero signaling the majority of respondents expect a decline. The green line shows the copper price. The survey data shown are as of June 4.
The weekly copper survey has forecast prices accurately in 45 of the past 90 weeks, or 50 percent of the time.
This week's survey results: Bullish: 10 Bearish: 8