Gold in the Limelight
Source: Mary Anne & Pamela Aden, Aden Forecast (11/23/09)
Gold is soaring, hitting new record highs almost daily. This C rise is going strong. Our initial $1,200 target level for this year's rise has nearly been reached, but gold could go higher. . .
This is good news for all of us who have been invested in gold for the past eight years. But even for those of you who invested in more recent times, gold has been a good and profitable investment.
We feel strongly that this will continue in the months and years ahead. And there are many valid reasons why.
Most important, the unprecedented monetary policy currently in force is inflationary. The same is true of the weak U.S. dollar, negative interest rates, rising oil and commodities. Gold buying by central banks is also boosting the gold price higher.
Even though gold is still relatively unknown in mainstream investment circles, it's starting to attract some attention. As this interest grows, momentum buying will pick up and the exchange traded funds are another big positive, simply because they make it easy to buy gold. The improving economy is another positive factor.
Some Calm After the Storm
Yes, there are problems. . .serious problems. But that doesn't mean the world is going to fall apart next month or next year.
Pessimists are always going to paint the worst case scenario. Optimists will forever present the best case scenario. The reality is usually somewhere in between. But the markets and the facts always tell the story and that's what we try to focus on. So what are they currently telling us?
First, despite all that's happening, it's important to put things into perspective. . .and looking back, the overall situation was a lot worse last year compared to how it is now.
Remember, the entire financial world was on the verge of collapse last year as one huge company after another failed, or came close to it. Economies worldwide were dropping and so were all of the global stock markets. Fear and panic were rampant, and with reason. The crisis wiped out a greater chunk of household wealth than during the Great Depression. No one knew what to do.
Now Fast Forward to Today
For starters, nearly every economy in the world is growing, some obviously more than others. But the point is they're all up. Stocks around the globe have also been rising this year and confidence is returning.
In the U.S., for instance, the economy grew 3½% in the third quarter. The leading economic indicator has been up for seven consecutive months and stocks, which lead the economy, have been rising for eight months. Manufacturing is on the mend, along with other important economic signs, all showing that the recession ended in June and the economy is now on its way up, albeit slowly.
In other countries, growth has been far more robust. In China, for example, the economy is growing at a 9% rate. So Korea is growing at the fastest pace in seven years. India is going strong, the same is true in most of Asia, Brazil and, to a lesser extent, Europe is improving, too.
2009: Great Gains
So far, based on 18 of the world's major stock markets, the gains this year have ranged between 11% and 92%. The average has been 31%. So even though the Dow Industrials is only up about 14%, the global stock markets are all telling us that ongoing growth lies ahead.
Because the markets look to the future, if that were not the case, these markets would be falling, not rising.
Okay, but what about commodities? The CRB commodity index has gained 24% this year. More impressive, copper has soared 101% and it's known as the global economic market barometer.
Oil has also surged. It's gained 75%. Very simply, if these two key commodities were not in big demand due to improving world economies, they wouldn't be rising the way they are. Instead, they too would be falling.
The main point is. . .these are not signs of recession and they're certainly not signaling a depression. In fact, they're telling us that deflation is not currently a concern.
On the contrary, these rising prices are more indicative of inflation downstream. That's especially true considering the weak dollar.
Again and very simply, in a healthy economy annual deficits shouldn't be more than 3% of GDP. Once this percentage exceeds 5-6%, the currency of the country involved historically falls sharply.
Currently, this percentage has soared to about 10% in the U.S. and unfortunately, that pretty much puts the nails in the dollar's coffin. This alone will propel gold much higher.
These are the key reasons why we continue to recommend buying and holding gold. Whatever the ultimate, longer-term outcome, it's pretty clear that the situation is going to intensify and as it does, gold is going to be the main beneficiary and its bull market will endure well into the years ahead. That's been the case for thousands of years during times of economic uncertainty and gross imbalances, and it's now happening again.
Note that gold rose 56% and 58%, respectively, in the last two C rises (see chart). So far, gold has risen 32% in the current C rise. Plus, its leading indicator still has room to rise further before it reaches the temporarily "too high" area. Since this rise is powerful, the gains this time around could be similar to those in 2006 and 2008. And if they are, gold could continue up to near the $1,350 level before this C rise is over.
We'll be watching closely but for now, hold on to all of your metals related investments. Silver and gold shares are also surging, and so are most of the other metals. Silver is at a new 16-month high and it too is approaching our first target area. Gold and silver will both remain super strong above $1,070 and $17.20.
Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are well known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts and recommendations on gold, stocks, interest rates and the other major markets. For more information, go to: www.adenforecast.com.