Gold Rallies Despite U.S. Dollar Strength


". . .gold may need a correction. . .(in dollar terms) prior to challenging the next psychological level of $1,100/oz."

Gold closed Friday night trading at $1,048/oz and is currently trading $7 higher at $1,055/oz. Support for gold is currently seen at $1,040 and resistance at $1,062. The record weekly dollar close was bullish from a technical perspective but gold may need a correction and consolidation (in dollar terms) prior to challenging the next psychological level of $1,100/oz.

Contrary to the popular perception that gold's rally has been purely a function of dollar weakness is the fact that in the last three weeks the dollar has actually strengthened against the euro and other major currencies (EUR/USD was above 1.48 on September 22nd and is at 1.4750 today). In that same time period, gold has rallied from under $1,010/oz to over $1,050/oz.

Uncertainty regarding the declining value of the dollar and its prospects as the global reserve currency is leading to increasing investment demand for gold. But the outlook for the Euro, Sterling and other currencies is not much better and thus as Alan Greenspan recently warned investors are buying precious metals to hedge against declines in currencies and that this was "a monetary phenomenon." Greenspan, (significantly now an advisor to hedge fund manager John Paulson—the largest holder of the gold ETF) said that this was an indication of a very early stage endeavor "to move away from paper currencies." Few if any of the weekend papers and media even bothered to report gold reaching record highs on three consecutive days last week and gold sentiment amongst the public remains lukewarm at best with many retail investors selling, and sales of gold jewelry or scrap gold remaining near record levels.

Silver is trading at $17.81/oz and continues to take its direction from Gold. In euro and GBP terms Silver is trading at €12.08/oz and £11.29/oz.

Platinum is trading at $1,336/oz while Rhodium and Palladium are trading at $1,700/oz and $323/oz respectively. Palladium is trading at its highs of this year.

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