Will Gold's Mini Rally Hold?


". . .longer-term view of gold is extremely bullish with $1,033/oz an achievable target in the coming months."


After falling by nearly $30/oz on Tuesday, to $926/oz, gold experienced a mini rally Wednesday, moving back to $938/oz in early trading. Whether this is a temporary bounce after a significant selloff remains to be seen. Better-than-expected U.S. jobless figures, a rally in equity markets and strong demand for the 7-year U.S. Treasury Bill issue Wednesday, may detract from gold and a further correction may be imminent. If the metal does not hold above $945/oz, then a move to the downside of $905/oz would be more likely. However, this would present an excellent buying opportunity as the longer-term view of gold is extremely bullish with $1,033/oz an achievable target in the coming months.


Whilst silver tends to hang on to the coattails of any short term move in the gold market, technically it is underperforming gold at the moment. If silver does not maintain a hold above $14.20/oz this would post a bearish signal and a move downwards. Possibly mid $12s/oz could be the next stop. However, some analysts believe that the fact that large shorts are not shorting silver as much as gold as seen in the commitment of traders report, could lead to silver decoupling from gold and significantly outperforming gold on the upside in the coming months.

Platinum group metals

Platinum regained some ground Wednesday, moving from $1,169/oz to $1,185/oz boosted by strong buying interest on the Shanghai Gold Exchange. $1,200/oz is still a strong resistance level. Palladium is $256/oz and rhodium is $1,575/$1,675/oz.

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