Bonds Slumping, Metals Looking Bullish
Source: Seeking Alpha, Peter Cooper (2/2/09)
"Prices of gold and silver will rocket to unheard of levels. . .predict gold experts."
Hedge funds that previously ignored precious metals have become converts, with hedge fund star Greenlight Capital buying the yellow metal for the first time.
Another money manager, Osmium Capital Management, is offering a hedge fund priced in ounces of gold to protect it from exchange rate fluctuations. Subscriptions are in dollars, euros or pounds and then converted into gold.
The conversion of the hedge funds to gold comes as they appear to be exiting U.S. Treasuries. In January the Barclay's Capital treasury index fell 2.8% compared with a gain of 13.7% in 2008.
There is a growing fear among hedge fund managers that treasury bonds will be the next shoe to drop in the global financial crisis. Government stimulus packages are going to massively increase the supply of bonds and the market has every sign of being in a bubble phase.
Hedge funds are, therefore, quietly heading for the side door before the mass panic to exit the bond market starts. Then, almost by default, the only safe haven remaining will be precious metals. Prices of gold and silver will rocket to unheard of levels under such a scenario, predict gold experts. They point to the fixed and relatively small supply of gold, and especially silver, relative to the probable demand.
In a world where multi-billion dollar stimulus packages are announced on an almost daily basis, this prediction has an air of inevitability about it.
Governments have seemingly lost all concern for monetary prudence in the face of a financial system in crisis, and inflation is the only logical outcome, although it is probably going to fire up gold and silver prices far more quickly than the global economy.