Forecasting the Gold Price


". . .expert panel predicts $1074 high, Mineweb readers $1305."

To forecast the gold price a year from now is an invidious task for experts. For the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) forecasters panel, a horrendously wrong judgment can cast doubts on an individual's credentials as advisers to those who may invest huge sums of money based on their advice.

This past year, the LBMA panel, on average, scored remarkably well on all countsódespite the seemingly poor performance of the yellow metal. The cautious approach, generally, is the path most professional analysts take and that worked out. Mineweb readers tend to be more on the bullish side of gold price prediction. Nevertheless in 2007, when gold did perform strongly, Mineweb readers were far more accurate in their estimates for high, low and average prices than their expert rivals in forecasting. Last year, though, the LBMA got its revenge with Mineweb readers averaging well in excess of the actuality on all counts.

Overall the LBMA panel's estimates for 2009 are for a gold price high of $1,074, a low of $721 and an average of $881. Mineweb readers so far are looking for a high of $1,305, a low of $753 and an average of $974.

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