CIBC—Silver Will Offer Lower Returns than Gold

Source:

"We believe that holding gold is better than holding silver through what we think will be a tumultuous 2009 and possibly longer."

While 2008 was supposed to be a banner year for silver, CIBC Global Markets suggested that "events later in the year have tarnished silver's performance." In a recently published analysis, CIBC metals analysts Barry Cooper, Brian Quast and Cosmos Chiu maintained their 2009 and 2010 silver price forecasts of $12/oz and $11/oz respectively, advising, "We believe that holding gold is better than holding silver through what we think will be a tumultuous 2009 and possibly longer."

After reaching highs of more than $20/oz in the early part of 2008, silver spent much of the latter part of last year languishing near $10/oz. "After a disastrous late 2008," the analysts asserted, "we feel that silver's downside beta to gold will remain higher than its upside beta."

"Therefore, for 2009, we believe that silver will likely offer lower returns than gold, with higher volatility," said CIBC. The analysts also predicted that as base metals increase in value, "more silver mines become feasible, and silver output from mines will increase, perhaps beyond any increase in demand for the silver ETF."

As lead and zinc prices are expected to rise through 2009 and 2010, CIBC advises that many silver projects would likely come on line, "thus increasing the supply of silver, and likely providing an overhang for the silver price by 2010."

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