Based on the standard bull/bear market move of 20%, oil is already well into a new bull market with its move of 44.7% since its closing low of $33.87 on December 19th.
Since 2000, the average oil bull market has seen the commodity rise 89%, while the average bear has seen oil decline by 39%. The 88-day decline in oil from 9/22 to 12/19 of 72% was by far the steepest drop the commodity has ever seen without a 20% rally.
The last four bull and bear markets in oil have all come within 6 months, highlighting the extreme volatility in the commodities market. The number of days that the last four market cycles have lasted has been much lower than normal. It's likely that we'll continue to see these big swings in short periods of time until the financial markets cool down.