Block Traders Find Opportunities in the Oil Sector
"Prices back above $100 a barrel for crude oil are quite likely in 2009, and a return to this yearís high is possible," suggests Peter Way, who monitors the buying and selling activity of "million dollar market makers."
In his always-fascinating Block Traders' Oil & Gas Monitor, he explains, "At a $100 billion scale, bets are being made that crude's price path to come is up." Here, he reviews the forecasts being made by "big block traders" as well as the specific stocks attracting their interest.
"Why are the big players in crude, energy industry and investment participants alike, so optimistic about its price in coming months? Donít they know that thereís a worldwide credit freeze on?
"Donít they see the plunge in auto sales with GM and Ford, hats in hand, begging in the beltway? Donít they hear about Chinaís post-Olympics slowdown?
"Donít they know about the glut of tanker transport capacity? Donít they know that OPEC members always cheat on announced production cutbacks? Canít they read the inventory statistics?
"Could it be that they think the credit freeze may thaw? Could they believe that drivers in the US will go back to pre-$4 a gallon driving habits?
"Could they believe that itís always safer to bet on shortage than on oversupply? We donít know. But the bets are being made, at a $100-billion scale, that crudeís price path to come is up...