Gold, Silver and Deflation

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The views on how gold will do during a deflationary period vary. Some insist that both metals will do well under almost any economic conditions; some, like Bob Prechter, think neither gold nor silver will do well; and others, like Jim Sinclair and Bob Hoye, believe gold and gold alone will be the only thing left standing.

The question has been pouring in: “What happens to gold during a deflation? Of course, many of my readers are equally if not more interested in what happens to silver in a deflation as well.

The views on this topic vary. Some insist that both metals will do well under almost any economic conditions; some, like Bob Prechter, think neither gold nor silver will do well; and others, like Jim Sinclair and Bob Hoye, believe gold and gold alone will be the only thing left standing.

In all matters such as these, studying the past can be beneficial, but—as you have read so many times before—knowing the past is not a guarantee of future results. Personally, I like to let the market speak, and for many years I have forecast that a day would come when the price of the physical silver market would separate from the price “set” in New York or London. Alas, this is the case when looking at the retail market versus the commercial market.

In all fairness, the COMEX price is being used as predicted to capture profits by purchasing COMEX bars and selling 100-oz. silver bars. Jason Hommel of Silver Stock Report has stated:

I own over 200,000 oz. of silver. I’m not selling out. I’m only selling 12,500 ounces, and I plan to buy more silver, cheaper, but in a different form, such as 1000 oz. bars.

The price manipulation at the COMEX is so severe, that it has now created the profit incentive to create a free market in silver, through this auction, in order to arbitrage between the two markets, by buying in one, and selling to the other...

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