Gold Pulls Back - Is There a Correction Ahead?
Source: Jason Hamlin, Seeking Alpha (3/6/08)
Gold will certainly break $1,000 this year, but we should keep in mind that gold is up over $300 or nearly 50% in the past six months.
I don't anticipate that the decline will be particularly long or severe, but a healthy drop to resistance at $900 seems to be in the cards. Any way that you look at it, the downside risk is probably greater than the upside potential at this point in time. Gold will certainly break $1,000 this year, but we should keep in mind that gold is up over $300 or nearly 50% in the past six months.
Mainstream investors are still not buying the metal, gold is still not dominating headlines and thus, it is unlikely that we have reached the blow-off stage that takes gold past its inflation-adjusted high of $2,100. While all of the fundamental reasons to hold gold are still in place, I anticipate a few pullbacks from the $1,000 mark before gold breaks decisively through it, and charges to new highs. Unless Chavez invades Columbia or Bush invades Iran, we are likely to see further price declines, and a short period of consolidation between $900 - $950. At the same time, the short-term trend channel shows that further upside is possible. Jason Hamlin, www.GoldStockBull.com